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I think most people are having trouble assigning a value to MHM...

  1. 3,800 Posts.
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    I think most people are having trouble assigning a value to MHM because they are treating MHM as a mining company.

    With all these forecasts of revenue, it appears 98% of people are fogetting to assign a value to the technology. When commissioning is complete and the margins are confirmed, not only does the revenue have value, but the technology has a huge value, as pointed out constantly by IE.

    Take into account the RB Milestone report, they are forecasting a net cashflow of $72m, from 590tpa(OZ+US) processing of salt slag. Expenditure of $70m for 525tpa.

    Now roll out double the capacity at another 1.05tpa at a cost of $140m(double) throughout the world. So now you have a capex of $210m with a cashflow of $210m net cash flow.

    If a predator was to come along, after commissioning of Moolap, they could offer most on here $5 in 6 months. You would all be thinking, "wow, what a deal!".

    Fast forward 2 years,

    That predator has fleeced you of your shares, paid $650m for MHM, invested another $210m for a total outlay of $860m and are producing a net cash flow of $210m to pay their investment off in 4 years. Now for a company producing cashflow in perpetuity, we will assign a PE of 15.

    15 * 210m = $3.15B for the value of Alreco(or what was Alreco that we sold for $5)

    That is doing calculations which don't include NMP or SPL.

    Now, who wants to try and value the technology now?

    Also goes to show the pay back period is approximately a year. Anyone for debt? Please show me where I can sign up!
 
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