Committee - Friday, page-5

Hi folks, OOH price for XJO (on IG) is currently around 4950, with DJI futures down almost 400 points.

I was suspicious leading into the new year with the advance to the top of the trading range reaching over 5300 on very low volumes, and lo and behold we have seen a complete reversal within a week of most of those gains (retracement on the closing price is about 75%).

However compare to last christmas / new year & I see some similarities - a christmas rally followed by a selloff in January (both on a pattern of decreasing / increasing volumes, mostly below average) before the major move to last year;'s high in April. Compare the two below:




Note: the difference in scales is deceptive - both christmas / new year moves measure around 350-400 pts.

The main difference seems to be this year is more obvious, straight up then straight down, and a little further on the retracement (75% so far compared to 61.8% last year). The cynical side of me thinks we're getting played. But let' not be cynical. Given we're now almost back to the 4900 level bottom of the trading range, imo we are due if not tomorrow then next week for a bounce. The main stumbling block for me is the DJI which has fallen below 17,000, but completion of a 2-bar reversal pattern tonight would (cynically and miraculously) fix that for the bulls - let's see...

Cheers, Sharks.