Russia only produces about 3% of the world's alumina but...

Russia only produces about 3% of the world's alumina but consumes about twice that (because they produce about 6% of the world's aluminium). See https://www.statista.com/statistics/264963/global-alumina-production-by-country/, https://www.statista.com/statistics/264624/global-production-of-aluminum-by-country/.

Russia is a net exporter of aluminium (~2% of world production, https://www.statista.com/statistics/1029384/russia-export-aluminum/) but a net importer of alumina (2-3% of world production). Note that the alumina imports are pretty much met by Russian ownership of non-Russian alumina refineries in Ireland, Ukraine, Jamaica and Australia.

Cutting off Russia from the rest of the world would tend to create an aluminium shortfall and an alumina surplus in the west, pushing aluminium price up and alumina price down. The alumina price drop could be softened a number of ways:

• If Ukraine is also cut out of the equation, ie Nikolaev refinery stays shut down (likely), or exports to Russia (unlikely)
• If Russian-owned alumina refineries in Ireland, Jamaica and Australia shut down (unlikely due to political pressure of job losses)
• If China acts as a middle-man, exporting alumina to Russia and importing alumina from the West (and also buying Russia's surplus aluminium). Possible but politically messy.

IMO the Ukraine crisis has more downside risk than upside for alumina price and hence AWC profits.

DYOR.