commodity boom

I can't believe what National Australia Bank is saying about the outlook for resources. Basically, "the boom is over and the bust is here"? "Gold $630"? "Amazing turnarounds"? These comments are uncharecteristic of a relatively conservative, 'studious' bank. They have been reasonably sensible and considered in the past (but often wrong) but never this extreme. Any thoughts?


1043 [Dow Jones] Base metals outlook weak with National Australia Bank declaring today "entire commodity boom looks like busting" with further advances for USD likely. Andrew Silver, deputy head of trading at Natexis Commodities, notes late Friday that unloading of commodities all about stronger USD and poor close last week for base metals "will bring in more selling". In technical analysis weekly, National Australia Bank says LME 3-month copper last $7,400/ton pulling back to support at $7,293, level close to a key weekly close moving average support at $6,936. "A weekly close below that will be very negative for copper with initial downside to $5,260 the first target."(RCB)


1043 [Dow Jones] Spot gold mostly holding early gains, last bid $859.20/oz, still up from $855 early Sydney but down $2.00 from morning's high. In technical analysis weekly, National Australia Bank declares "entire commodity boom looks like busting" with further advances for USD likely. "Markets are in for one of the most amazing turnarounds ever seen," NAB says. Gold giving major cyclical sell signals, with monthly close chart showing major break of RSI trend - a precursor to a break of the actual chart, also giving major positive signal for USD. "Gold could well be on its way back to the $630 area," bank says. (RCB)