I remember having this same argument about the price of a litre of petrol about 8 years ago and the person I was speaking with said then 2003 that in the next 2 years petrol will be $5.00/l.
I said that the fundamental case ( peak oil ) supports the case for higher prices but predicting time frames is a very dangerous thing.
Since that conversation crude spiked to $150/barrel and we saw petrol in Sydney around $1.50 or so.
This was driven in large part by those nasty speculators like Goldman Sachs hyping the price then selling on the way up.
Surprise surprise by the time Goldman was out the backside fell out of the crude price
This all came out months after the event but of course nothing was done about it.
Now crude is about $80/barrel which is probably closer to the true supply /demand balance point
As I have always said the problem with oil is not that we are running out of it but more that we are running out of cheap oil.
Petrol will be $5/l and much more at some point but I cant tell you when.
As for the prospects of ARW I see them more likely becoming a part of WAS at the moment but their prospects in general are fairly bleek
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