I've been thinking hard about why HDR has not moved on the recent Chinguetti appraisal results. HDR continues to be a difficult stock to trade - it doesn't seem to respond at times. I won't propose any "conspiracy theory" to explain my failure to get it right - that's too easy.
What I think is happening is that there is a general hesitancy to buy HDR at this stage because:
1) Tiof results are imminent and it is testing a separate fairway - may or may not be oil charged.
2) Ahead of results there is always more selling pressure as profits are taken (if any) - unless inside information prompts a run.
3) Final Chinguetti pressure results and development approval are pending - almost certain to go ahead but not guaranteed
4) Mauritanian elections are tomorrow - to date I have discounted this as a factor but on reflection I think it is a major influence. There is uncertainty - which the market hates.
5) With all the sellers lined up why would you buy (given 1-4 above) - there is little short-term likelihood of a profitable trade. Only buyers for the long-term are interested at present - the day traders have disappeared.
So - most seem to be waiting for the above factors to be resolved - then we will see some buying. If the elections go well (current president returned comfortably) and Tiof is a successs - its anyone's guess where the sp will end up. I've given up on predicting.
Good luck to all holders - we are going to need it !!!
H
HDR Price at posting:
0.0¢ Sentiment: None Disclosure: Not Held
