The other factor to consider with QAN is in-bound vs outbound travel.
A rapidly appreciating currency such as the A$ (against all major, or relevant, currencies) is likely to negatively impact in-bound travellers (particularly tourists, who may no longer regard Australia as a favourably valued destination of choice).
Conversely, out-bound travellers (particularly tourists) will now see better value in travelling overseas vs staying at home.
Put into context, it is likely that QAN's load factors will reduce (not increase) during this time, and that some overseas routes will be cancelled, temporarily suspended, or experience a reduced frequency of flights.
USA routes are likely to suffer least of all, whilst Asian and European destinations are likely to see a reduced frequency of flights. Why? 4 reasons: 1) More business is done with the USA (ie: business meetings, conferences, conventions, and training) than is done with European or Asian destinations; 2) the USA offers a onestop shop for these activities whereas Europe and Asia is more fractured (ie: the cultural, geo-political divided, etc); 3) the USA permits travel pooling (ie: all inbound flights to the States are generally to LAX or overland to NY) whereas there are a number of dedicated flight routes into Europe (Rome, London, Frankfurt, Paris, etc) and into Asia (Singapore, KL, Jakarta, Tokyo, Hong Kong, Beijing, Seoul, Bangkok, etc; and 4) QAN can bulk up (ie: add load) to some of its destinations (ie: the States, and to such Asian hubs as Singapore and Bangkok), but otherwise is restricted in its ability to bulk up on a number of its other European or Asian flight routes.
Whilst QAN may well benefit from paying international rates for its pilots /flight crews, the bulk of its employees are either employed domestically in Australia, or are locally employed in other countries (the likely ratio is 70/20/10 being 70% Australian based, 20% foreign based and 10% being paid on international terms). As such, an appreciating A$ will have a marginal impact on its overall wages bill.
Beyond this, QAN has interests in various domestic tourist resorts (etc), all of which are likely to be adversely impacted by reduced tourist numbers (domestic and international).
And then there is the matter of domestic travel which, in relative terms, continues to get more expensive especially compared to international, outbound travel. This will, therefore, have another subdued impact, especially as Australian holidaymakers start to weigh up the alternatives (including competitor carriers), and as Australian business starts to count the cost of its domestic (vs international) travel roster.
Overall, QAN is likely to face a neutral to negative outlook.
Australian based tourist operators, hotels, etc, however, may well suffer more, as will the local convention industry (if the high rate of the A$ continues).
