You strike a valid point and i can tell you Big Pharma are "Risk Averse" Certainty is what they are buying.
Reputation of Big Pharma is critical to them second its all about MONEY,,, I know no surprises there,, BP primarily have SH they need to deliver a return to yearly , acquisitions even though at a Multiple of the Take Over Company's MC.
Great T/O are at a premium of 300% to 400% of the MC ,, if the Treatment is spectacular and the BP's IP is near the end of it's life then replacements to "Fill the Slot" are sought.. BP are all about Market Share ,, The Better the Treatment the greater the market share.. so lets say MT and Co negotiate a 5 x premium ,, recently PAA rose up to just over $200m MC so that would return a $1B Purchase.
Why don't BP pay exuberant amounts over the top? because they too can buy a position on market... in some cases they take an early position to get a really good look .....
Now that PAA has commenced the Phase II strategy I don't see any real need for BP to get out the cheque book immediately. Although the Phase I results are Fantastic "Remarkable" in fact they are from a small 12 patient Cohort and don't fully deliver "Statistical Significance" that's what larger Cohorts deliver and the Phase I demonstrated Tolerability and Safety in abundance.
BP are going to want to gain Efficacy Data and by late 2026 they will have Definitive Empirical Evidence and be able to make a precise Medical Claim,, eg 90% of MND Patients that took MPL extended life by xx time demonstrating XX benefits.
Time is also the enemy of BP ,, knowing that PAA have leapt forward with manufacturing data, stabalisation data (storage times) Manufacturing costs and turn around times is of huge benefit ,, The old adage 'The stronger the data the greater the Value"
This is one of the most critical stages of pharmaceutical development, often referred to as the "valley of death", where most clinical failures are seen [97]. Although generally regarded as a PoC in humans, the phase II clinical trials do not necessarily produce statistically significant results. ...
The data that PAA currently possess demonstrates strong Safety and Tolerability which enables the gateway to Phase II Trialing , ironically the ANZCTR register is open for Oncology for PAA to proceed with Phase II Oncology trials NOW that a Safe and Tolerable tablet has been developed and proven. Yes we know the Company are pursuing Neurological Disorders/ Disease but BP will know there is value in Owning a "First in Class medicine that has proven the ability to deliver a beneficial dose of MPL across the Blood Brain Barrier utilisng the mTOR Pathway" I do not know of any other Company that has achieved this..NZT
Don't shoot the messenger but Phase II is risky , it's the greatest failure point in trialing . That's why I hunt the Phase II sweetspot but don't hold for the outcome,, the run up to Phase II results is a known sweetspot with corresponding rise in value.. That's why Interim Results are the greatest indicator , positive Interim results is like pouring fuel on the SP,, indicating a high degree of success prior to final complete data analysis..
Many here know my view on promotion and why its so crucial to eek out and gain every cent of value on positive news as there is natural SP erosion during the drought of data...
IMHO BP have no absolute reason to move swiftly and remember they have to justify to their SH that they are buying Value ,, in 2026 or upon significant positive Phase II data BP will be aware of PAA and the reduced timeline from Phase II to market ready drug that can begin to provide returns swiftly to BP SH.
Important to note that our MC has increased to $97m as a result of additional shares on issue , Nothing has changed with the Science since the rise to 53c , political / Management change yes BUT BP are buying the Science not the BOD or Management.. so I have not seen a concerted effort as yet to return the value of the Science? In fact if you factor in a BOD change for the Good "which I do" then the value of PAA should have increased ,, or at the very least returned to the high 30c low 40c range..
Great Treatment with average Management = X Great Treatment now with Top Line Management should = X +
The previous BOD played a significant role in Drug Development to then almost a Custodial role ,,, now its the New Teams turn to demonstrate Value + and commercialise MPL..
20c ? you better hope BP don't come knocking too soon ,,or start buying PAA on market ...NZT
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