I also identify with the “what am I missing” doubts.
As highlighted before, sample size too small and big pharma risk averse, because the BP employee is risking the firms capital and not their own, so they are more interested in downside protection and getting it right, where as us investors have an eye to the upside potential and are prepared to absorb more risk. They will/ may lose their job at the end of the day, if they get it wrong. So all in all, I don’t think much action from BP soon.
However, the market is full of many other investors, why don’t they recognise the risk reward payoff that we do.
Whilst the ALS average survival times are close to 2 years, this hides a very wide range, Daniher & Stephen Hawking are 2 examples used by MT who prove my point, they lived with it for years. Hence I think the market sees that you should be ultra careful in extrapolating our P1 and OLE data.
What I don’t think is well understood here, is that although the OLE and P1 trial was a very small sample size, the matching that Berry have done for us, should control for that very wind range of deterioration rates (not absolutely, but for the most part). Berry is a very reputable organisation and aren’t risking their reputation to slightly fudge the numbers for an ASX minnow.
Hence the continuation of the OLE, will help with the unwind of the discount rate being applied to PAA (higher share price), so patience is the order of the day! Our risk is lower, and our potential is much higher, than the market is crediting us with.
PAA Price at posting:
19.5¢ Sentiment: Buy Disclosure: Held
(20min delay)