comparable flares..., page-32

Walt...

Whilst there may be some truth in what you say, there are also other more subtle things that have proven a bit of a turning point for me.

All my assessments was based on company announcements, but cross referenced to my own research notes!

Of course I am making my own interpretations here...which is all one can do when alternative information is not available...but of course this can come undone when we are fed misleading information to start with, intentional or otherwise.

Two of the most crucial announcements for me were the Alkali Gulch and in particular, the Pinkerton Trail high pressured (and fractured in the case of Pinkerton Trail) gas hits!

The implications here, when one looks at the formation characteristics of these two zones, are for a high likelihood of significant flow rates and commercial production according to regional characteristics…and for The Pinkerton Trail hit, it had major implications for Leadville!

But they were incorrectly reported!

They are now being referred to as Cane-Creek intersections...typically better suited to tight strata and vertical micro-fractures (but not always)...which basically means we need horizontal drilling as suggested by the company. Further, Cane Creek is self sourcing, effectively ruling out the entire theory of gas charge from below...which for me was a significant assumption, especially below the salt layer.

It appears now that the Alkali Gulch is possibly a 'B' unit of the Cane Creek member, which is comprised of black, organic-rich shales and dolomites. Which also suggests the Pinkerton Trail is likely to be the lower 'C' unit of the Cane Creek member, which consists of interbedded red siltstone and anhydrite.

Interestingly, I wonder if they will declare any upper zones of gas as potentially 'A' units of the Cane Creek member, which will basically be the same as the lower 'C' unit!

It was the Pinkerton trail “swap” to a Cane Creek zone that really sent a wave of doubt through my mind...it was a bit like saying...sorry, it wasn't gold after all, just lead!

The Pinkertaon Trail formation consists of a suite of normal to restricted marine sediments, including limestones, dolomites, sandstones, siltstones, shales, and anhydrites...and as such, decent flows and pressures from here during drilling stood a better than excellent chance of high-grade commercial production.

Had this been declared as Cane Creek when they first encountered it however, I would not have been so bullish on this formation...nor the Alkali Gulch zone for that mater!

As I said, it is hard enough making informed "guesstimations" not perhaps common knowledge yet in the market as a means to beat the rush...but it is near impossible when we don't have the right data on which to base our guestimations in the first place!

Disappointed…but not totally despondent!

Cheers!