I took two parcels so far. It is a buy or not is up to your own assessment but I would like to point out the following where I obtain from Morningstar:
1. In May 2023, APM was confirmed as the successful bidder for a GBP 384 million functional assessment services contract over five years commencing in fiscal 2025 in the U.K. We expect this contract to improve group profitability as APM leverages its existing U.K. workforce. Approximately A$750m more or less
2. 75% of APM revenue is from employment services but the NDIS is only 5% (a key strategy of APM is to grow into the National Disability Insurance Scheme). Self-managed NDIS participants would need little assistance from APM but the share of participants choosing to work with plan managers, to assist with budgeting for example, has increased to over 50% in June 2022 from 30% in June 2019
3. Better economy of scale compare to its competitor or any new player (some sort of barrier for new players) NOTE: APM star ratings is 4 to 5 for most of DES and Workforce Australia - winning government contract is subject to star ratings. Industry average is 3.2 stars and APM is average 3.8 stars. Most contracts are typically 5 years..
4. APM’s balance sheet is in sound condition. Financial risk is low given a high proportion of variable costs, solid cash conversion and lengthy government contracts. We forecast net debt/EBITDA to remain under 1.0 over our explicit 10-year forecast period while also funding a 50% dividend pay-out ratio.
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