Compared to IOH - RCL IO Deal Worth $1 Max!!, page-15

  1. 1,301 Posts.
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    The railway that is 70km away was virtually destroyed during the Liberian civil war. ArcelorMittal virtually own it due to the fact they have spent 10's of millions rebuilding it. It was a long and expensive process because they had to train the local people before they could start the rebuild. Arcelor don't have to give Rand access to the railway, and even if they did it wouldn't be free, it cost them loads. A loading/receiving terminal also needs to be built at the railway. Who's going to do that? The workers that Arcelor trained work for Arcelor. How much is it going to cost. And a 70km road to get to the site, how much is that going to cost so that it will take heavily laden trucks? Even then it will be unusable during the long rainy season months. What about the port? Arcelor are shipping 5M tonnes a year out of it at the moment and port facilities are at capacity. They are currently increasing the export level to 15M tonnes and are spending millions to upgrade the port facilities. So we have to build a 70km road, re have to build a loading station on a railway that we have no access rights for, and we have to build extensive port facilities. That's before we even consider what it will cost to develop the mine.

    ArcelorMittal are a multi-billion dollar steel company, they have access to the expertise and the financial resources to carry out these sized projects. They have already spent $1B to get to 5M tonnes per annum and when they get to 15mtpa they will have spent $1.5B. They have a railway all the way from mine site to port. Anything less will just not work due to the very heavy rain fall in the country.

    What do Rand have? We are a $30M company with an interest in a good gold mine. That's where we should stay.

    The only way this seems to make sense is from the perspective of the directors. Their related party involvement means that they will gain considerably from this transaction - and the gain wont come from value created in Liberia but from their significantly increased ownership of Rand.


    So yet again I come back to a value of zero.
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