Worzel,
I don't think Liberia will proceed unless the company can establish that the project has real potential and scale and as you have pointed out this is taking a long time and will probably take more time to come, particularly given that the Liberian government, from reports I've read in the paper, are starting to restrict movements in the country due to the ebola virus outbreak. So in short I don't think Liberia is an issue at this very moment. As I said the sky isn't falling in, so if you want to support these companies lay off the conspiracy theories for a while.
Now if the transaction were to proceed, IMO it would be off the back of many years of due diligence drilling which should give management the comfort they need. I don't fully remember the specifics of the transaction, but the major dilution doesn't happen until after ever increasing significant resource milestones are met.
Now should we worry about that dilution? Probably not. Currently the major shareholders are significantly diluting us lesser shareholders in both Tribune and Rand, but it doesn't matter as the top shareholders don't trade their shares. Their shares may as well not exist for our purposes, unless of course the larger holders were ever tempted for an out right sale of their holdings, in which case us lesser holders could only benefit from the larger holders demanding a fair price for their own holdings in any take-over should it ever happen (which I doubt very much will happen while the current management are alive and kicking).
I am only guessing but the expanded number of shares in Rand post the transaction are probably needed to allow for potential equity to be sold as part of any debt/equity deal that might need to be done to develop the iron ore project should the transaction proceed. Once again the expand equity resulting from the currently proposed transaction may as well not exist, as I doubt it will ever be traded on the market, bar a take-over offer. In which case, I repeat again, the lesser shareholders would gain advantage as the larger shareholders will demand a fair price for the assets that Rand/Tribune own. These companies haven't worked for over 20 years to sell off their assets at basement prices.
Now this is all strictly in my opinion and I can't provided you any guarantees. I could be totally wrong and it could be all a big plot as other people have suggested. That is the risk one takes.
I can only give you two guarantees my friend, death and taxes.
Regards
SilentO
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