comparing 05-07 sp rally

During the Bird-flu Pandemic stockpiling years, BTA sp rallied to $1.88.
Will the 2005 to 2007 rally be repeated or surpassed? During those years, the demand for Relenza out-stripped supply. Sales were restricted only by production capacity where GSK was dragged out of bed and forced to increase annual production capacity to between 24 million to 30 million courses with plan to further increase it to between 30 to 45 million courses in calender 2007 (Refer BTA’s announcement dated 10 August 07)
The pandemic stockpile market then fizzled out starting the sp decline. The SP declined further after the idiot Peter Cook sold out shareholders in the cooked settlement.

Relenza was and is always superior to Tamiflu. Relenza market share during the 05/07 years were extremely low at about 5% market share, no thanks to GSK. With the growing awareness of the Tamiflu-resistance in the flu virus, Relenza market share has increased tremendously with some scientific groups suggesting Relenza should be as high as 50% of the stockpile. The current flu outbreak caused an unprecedented demand for Relenza. Is demand now out-stripping supply capacity? The last quarter Relenza sales seem to indicate this may be the case. The UK and Japanese orders indicated market share in excess of 20% and these were before the swine flu outbreak.

The swine flu outbreak not only increased demand for anti-virals but it will also boost Relenza market share for anti-virals. During the recent Northern Winter Flu season, a common strain of the flu virus became resistance to Tamiflu. These factors (increased production capacity; increased demand for antivirals and increased market share) have a good probability of a good Relenza sale figure in the next quarter, thereby boosting the sp.

Other positive surprises could come from Lani or the other pipeline development drugs.

The downside risks are the idiots in BTA board. Each time Peter Cook opens his mouth, shareholders wealth drops.
GSK too seem to have conflicting interests. GSK Pandemic Vaccine is competing for the same pool of money purse as Relenza. One has to wonder what GSK is telling clients who call up to buy Relenza about the GSK vaccine.

If Relenza is marketed properly, the demand should easily out stripped the 50 to 60 million courses annual production capacity GSK announced recently. In fact, shareholders should question Peter Cook why Tamiflu could sell in excess of 600 million courses per annum (I think from memory) during the bird-flu pandemic and GSK is only planning for 50 to 60 million courses capacity in this swine flu outbreak and selling more GSK vaccine than Relenza. The GSK vaccine is specific to the swineflu virus and any scientist can tell you it will be useless when the virus mutates to a more virulent strain. In comparison, Relenza is likely to remain effective. So why is GSK vaccine outselling Relenza?