Just been looking through Helmsec Report on AFR and it is a great read to give you an idea of NMR's potential!!
Heres my own take on a Peer comparison
AFR
Project name - Sese Raw Inferred resource - 2.73 billion tonnes Coal Grade - Thermal Coal Average Depth - not below 80m Market cap - $127 million Number of shares on issue - 326 million Current share price - 28.5c Helmsec valuation for Sese alone - $1.00 p.share
Raw resource (weighted average over upper and lower main)
Washed Coal results 1.6 SG (using table.4 in Helmsec report)
Yield - 43% IM - 8% Ash - 22.9% VM - 24% Fixed Carbon - 47% Sulphur - 0.2%
NMR
Project name - Takatokwane Raw inferred resource - 4.23 billion tonnes Coal grade - Thermal coal Market cap - $17.4 million Number of shares on issue - 423.3 million Average depth - not below 150m**** Current share price - 4.1c
NMR's resource size is huge compared to AFR!! with more blue skies ahead!! Even at 70% ownership our slice of the resource pie is 2,961 billion tonnes - larger than AFR's entire resource!!
Our overall washed coal yield is higher that AFR. 57% yield versus 43% yield - huge difference when you are talking in the billions of tons!!
The average depth of AFR's resource is shallower, no deeper than 80m. NMR's resource is no deeper than 150m. However if you look at NMR's resource more closely you will see that 2,860 billion tonnes lies no deeper than 103.5m!!! An amount larger than AFR entire resource!!
NMR's coal has lower ash content compared with AFR.
One of my concerns was the high sulphur content of NMR's resource being at 1.7%, however am curious why this did not drop much post wash. I have emailed Chris Mason and asked how this point was addressed during the Botswana presentation. Either way there seems to be a healthy market for high sulphur coal internationally. Read up on Coal Blending which is a growing market ie the blending of low sulphur/low ash coal with high sulphur/high ash coal. Currently reading up on various desulphurisation techniques. Anyone else keen on reading up - heres the link http://wiredspace.wits.ac.za/bitstream/handle/10539/7148/Desulphurisation%20of%20South%20African%20Coal%20using%20Low%20Power%20Micro.pdf?sequence=1
Overall I find AFR the easiest comparison to make out of all the other African coal stocks.
NMR's current share price is 4.1c even if you apply a discount 50% for the difference in quality of coal ie higher sulphur content and the fact that we are further from rail , there is still a monsterous gap between 17.4 million and 127 million market caps.
Even at a 50% discount to AFR's 0.038 EV / resource tonnes.
At 0.019 multiplied by NMR's 2,961 billion tonnes (NMR's 70%), we should be at a market cap of 56.3 million or a share price of 13.5c
I know Im only throwing numbers around, but this stock is horrendously undervalued!!! Its as bit of a rodeo ride at the moment but I am looking to pick up whatever shares I can on the dips. Averaged down some today at 4.1 and will continue to do so if it goes lower!!
Good luck to all holders!!!!!!!!!!
NMR Price at posting:
4.1¢ Sentiment: LT Buy Disclosure: Held
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