For those who haven't seen the report from Bell Potter,it's mouth watering stuff. Paloma deep results are close so hold onto your hat.
We value the existing oil fields in California at $0.31/sh, and Paloma Deep could more than double that. The value of Paloma will primarily depend on production rates, and the ongoing test work is seeking to determine the best way forward in this regard. Our valuation has consistently used $5/boe for this discovery which would equate to $0.29- 0.53/share if reserves ultimately match the 2C or 3C estimates. We have risked this at 50%, so our Price Target of $0.90/sh only includes $0.12/sh for Paloma at this stage. The real upside for NEN is in Vietnam, where the unrisked upside is worth in excess of $4/sh, but using only a 10-20% chance of success we value these assets at $0.55/sh. Our valuation for NEN is $0.90/sh on a risked basis, and we haven’t changed the value for Paloma Deep yet, as our pre-drill estimate was for a 30mmboe field with a 50% chance of success. While the results announced today are very encouraging, they are in line with our expectations. The unrisked valuation is $4.95/sh
NEN Price at posting:
39.0¢ Sentiment: LT Buy Disclosure: Held