Today's news spiked another wave on lithium stocks across the global.
Ganfeng hit a new record high, market cap $60 billion.
Spodumene concentrate price US$1,250/dmt surpassed last peak price.
To use US$1,250/t concentrates to produce lithium carbonate, cost will be US$15,000/t.
Currently China battery grade lithium carbonate price is about US$14,000/t, still far from last peak time CNY180, 000/t, equivalent US$27,850/t.
Here's the news and large Chinese institutions opinions: forecast lithium carbonate price to rise more than expected in the coming months, likely to retest previous peak level of CNY180k/t (US$27,850/t).
Hold tight, imo.
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On 29 July 2021, Australian lithium miner's Pilbara BMX platform held its first auction, 10,000 tons of lithium ore final photograph in the price of 1250 US dollars / ton, a record at a record high.
CITIC Securities said that the shift of Australian lithium concentrate producers to spot sales is expected to increase the price of lithium concentrate even more drastically, and the price of lithium may rise to a higher level.
Guotai Junan also said that based on the analysis of supply and demand and inventory, it is expected that the second half of the year will be the most tense period of time in the lithium industry in recent years. The price of lithium in the second half of the year may exceed market expectations.
Lithium ore auction record at a record high
Pilbara, Australia's main lithium mine, auctioned lithium concentrate on the BMX electronic platform on July 29, 2021. More than 30 companies participated. The final price of lithium concentrate was auctioned at US$1,250/ton, a record high. According to this calculation, the cost of lithium carbonate is 97,000 yuan/ton, which has exceeded the spot market price of lithium carbonate of 90,000/ton.
In the last cycle, the price of lithium salt was as high as 180,000/ton. At that time, the price of lithium concentrate was at US$1,000-1100/ton. This time Pilbara set a record high price of lithium concentrate in the form of auction, which is different from most The price of a long order reflects the tight supply and demand of the lithium concentrate market.
CITIC Securities : In addition to sodium batteries, more attention should be paid to the price increase of Australian mines
On July 29, CATL released sodium ion battery technology. However, CITIC believes that the impact of sodium-ion batteries on the existing technical route is very limited, and it will not change the current market pattern of tight lithium supply. In this lithium concentrate auction, the rapid increase in prices caused market concerns.
CITIC believes that as Australian lithium concentrate companies turn more to spot auction sales, in the context of supply shortages, it is expected that the price of lithium concentrate will rise more sharply. Domestic companies that rely on the production of Australian lithium raw materials will face severe cost pressures. The sharp increase in raw material prices will also force lithium salt companies to continue to raise prices from the cost side, and the room for lithium prices to rise again will be widened.
The disorderly price hike of lithium concentrate will cause downstream customers to worry more about the supply chain. The traditional "Australian lithium mine + Chinese lithium salt" supply model will force downstream suppliers to switch due to out-of-control cost management, such as salt lake promotion. Lithium and Chinese native mica extract lithium and so on.
Lithium prices may rise to higher levels Guotai Junan said that the second half of 2021 will be the most tight period of supply and demand in the lithium industry in recent years.
On the demand side, it is expected that the demand for lithium batteries in the second half of the year will increase by about 50% compared with the first half of the year, and the demand for lithium batteries will increase quarter by quarter and month by month. On the other hand, on the supply side, short-term supply is rigid, and the second half of the year coincides with a vacuum period for new supply. The quarterly supply in the third and fourth quarters of 2021 is basically the same in the second quarter, with little increase.
Lithium concentrate hit a record high, reflecting that lithium ore is the shortest shortcoming. In the second half of the year, the entire lithium battery industry chain lacks lithium, and the entire lithium industry lacks minerals, which will become the most obvious feature. Based on the analysis of supply and demand, Guotai Junan believes that the main rise in the price of lithium concentrate and lithium salt has just begun, and the overall rise of lithium prices in the second half of the year kicked off.
It said that the current tightness of lithium supply and demand and changes in lithium prices are non-linear. Based on a stronger understanding and perception of the upstream and downstream of the lithium market, it is expected that the lithium price in the second half of the year will exceed market expectations, and the lithium price forecast for the second half of the year will be increased to history. The former high is 180,000/ton.
GLN Price at posting:
$1.04 Sentiment: Buy Disclosure: Held
(20min delay)