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It took only 7 months! China's new energy vehicle penetration rate soared from 5% to nearly 15%

Zhitong Finance Network
August 15th at 09:05
On August 11, the latest data released by the China Automobile Association showed that new energy vehicles continued to be a bright spot in July, and the production and sales of the month continued to break historical records; the cumulative production and sales from January to July have exceeded the domestic annual number of all the years, and the penetration rate has also continued. Increase to 10%.

Just the day before, the data released by the Federation also showed that in terms of retail, the domestic retail penetration rate of new energy vehicles in July was 14.8%; the penetration rate from January to July was 10.9%, which was a significant increase from the 5.8% penetration rate in 2020. Among them, in July, the penetration rate of new energy vehicles in independent brands was as high as 30.1%, and the penetration rate of new energy vehicles in luxury cars was 8%; while the penetration rate of new energy vehicles in mainstream joint venture brands was only 2.5%.

In terms of wholesale, the wholesale penetration rate of new energy vehicle manufacturers in July was 16.3%, and the penetration rate from January to July was 11.8%, which is a significant increase from the 5.8% penetration rate in 2020. Among them, in July, the penetration rate of new energy vehicles in independent brands was 28.4%; the penetration rate of new energy vehicles in luxury cars was 19.3%; and the penetration rate of new energy vehicles in mainstream joint venture brands was only 2.1%.

According to the analysis of the Passenger Association, the current new energy vehicle companies have formally entered the stage of high-speed popularization of new energy through years of user training. The new energy vehicle market will continue to accelerate in an all-round way, independent brands will continue to increase their volume, and joint venture new energy products will continue to be launched, bringing a large year-on-year increase in new energy vehicles. At the same time, new energy vehicles activate new kinetic energy to promote the transformation and upgrading of the manufacturing industry chain, which has a significant driving effect on upstream and downstream enterprises.

The battery network combed and found that from 2005 to 2015, the penetration rate of new energy vehicles in my country exceeded 1%, and it took 10 years; from 2016 to the first half of 2019, the penetration rate of new energy vehicles in my country rapidly increased from 1% to 5%. It took more than 3 years; from the second half of 2019 to the end of 2020, due to multiple factors such as subsidy decline and epidemic situation, the penetration rate of new energy vehicles in my country has not exceeded 6%. Since the beginning of this year, the penetration rate of new energy vehicles in my country Soaring from 5% to nearly 15%, it took only 7 months!

On November 2, 2020, the "New Energy Automobile Industry Development Plan (2021-2035)" issued by the General Office of the State Council proposes that by 2025, the average power consumption of new pure electric passenger vehicles will be reduced to 12.0 kWh/100 kilometers. , The sales of new energy vehicles and new vehicles have reached about 20% of the total sales of new vehicles.

If the high growth trend continues, the 20% penetration rate target for new energy vehicles may be achieved ahead of schedule.

Since the beginning of this year, the industry has generally raised my country's new energy vehicle sales expectations.

In the first July of this year, my country's new energy vehicle sales reached 1.478 million. Yu Qingjiao, secretary-general of the Zhongguancun New Battery Technology Innovation Alliance, predicts that the production and sales of new energy vehicles in China this year are expected to reach 2.6-2.8 million.

In July, the research institute EVTank, the Ivey Economic Research Institute and the China Battery Industry Research Institute jointly released the "Global New Energy Vehicle Market Mid- and Long-term Development Outlook (2030)" in Beijing. The report predicts that by 2025, the global sales of new energy vehicles will reach 18 million vehicles. This figure is an increase of 10% from the 16.4 million vehicles predicted by the agency at the beginning of the year.

EVTank believes that the sharp drop in the price of automotive power batteries due to technological progress and the gradual improvement of charging and replacement infrastructure are the direct reasons for the rapid growth of the new energy vehicle market. The "White Paper on China's Lithium-ion Battery Industry Development (2021)" released by EVTank shows that the price of power lithium batteries for automobiles has dropped from 3,800 yuan/KWh in 2011 to 578 yuan/KWh in 2020, and the energy density of mass-produced batteries has increased by The 80Wh/kg in 2011 will rise to 270Wh/kg in 2020. EVTank predicts that in the future, the cost of automotive power batteries will still maintain an average annual decline of about 5%.

In the global market, the penetration rate of new energy vehicles is also accelerating.

In the European market, a research report issued by Huachuang Securities showed that the sales of electric vehicles in nine European countries (Germany, Britain, France, Sweden, Norway, Italy, Spain, Finland, and Portugal) totaled 132,000 units in July, an increase of 42.6% year-on-year. The penetration rate reaches 18%. European car companies continue to invest in electrification. Huachuang Securities predicts that European new energy vehicle sales are expected to exceed 2.2 million in 2021 and 7.5 million in 2025.

In the United States, on August 5, Biden has signed an executive order requiring that 50% of new car sales in the United States by 2030 be new energy vehicles, including pure electric, plug-in hybrid and fuel cell electric vehicles. In 2020, there will be about 761,000 hybrid, plug-in hybrid and electric vehicles sold in the United States, which is less than 0.5% of total car sales.

The industry predicts that under the stimulus of policies, the penetration rate of the US new energy vehicle market is expected to usher in breakthrough growth.

According to a research report issued by Guohai Securities , China, the United States and Europe will have a triple resonance in 2021, and the US policy will meet an inflection point. It is expected to continue to erupt in 2022. The penetration rate of electric vehicles in core economies such as China and Europe has exceeded 10% and is moving towards 10%→20%. →50%, usher in the best growth cycle.