GLN (ASX) Compelling opportunity

Originally posted by BGunther: ↑

GLN LKE AGY LPI
1 Share Price 0.995 0.53 0.15 0.29
2

3 Primary Asset Brine, Hombre Muerto West (100%), Argentina Brine, Kachi, (100%) Argentina Brine, Rincon Project (90%), Argentina Brine, Minera Salar Blanco (51%) Maricunga, Chile
4

5 Production Capacity 20,000 tpa, 40yr LOM 25,500 tpa, 25yr LOM 2,000 tpa rising to 10,000 tpa, 16.5yr LOM 20,000 tpa, 20yr LOM
6

7 Secondary Assets Brine, Candelas, (Arg):Hard Rock, Greenbushes, (W.A.) Brine, Cauchari, (Arg): Brine, Olaroz (Arg) Brine, Tonopah Project (100%), Nevada Hard Rock, Tabba Tabba (100%), Pilgangoora, WA: Rock, Greenbushes (100%) WA
8

9 Primary Resource (LCE) HMW Indicated = 2.267 Mt @ 946 mg/l, Candelas Indicated = 0.685 Mt @ 685 mg/l Indicated = 1.005 Mt @ 289 mg/l, Total Resource = 4.4 Mt @ 211 mg/l Indicated = 0.245 Mt @ 325 mg/l Measured = 0.7767 Mt @ 1,175 mg/l, Indicated = 1.293 Mt @ 1,153 mg/l Total M & I = 2.070 Mt @ 1,167 mg/l
10

11 Market Cap (A$) $284,175,537 $560,740,000 $187,540,756 $87,275,402
12

13 Cash on Hand $65,000,000 $25,000,000 $29,800,000 $6,281,000
14

15 EV (A$) $219,175,537 $535,740,000 $157,740,756 $80,994,402
16

17 NPV8 Post Tax $A $977,380,951 $2,286,777,708 $444,315,734 $684,809,887
18

19 Assumed LOM Sales Price $11,687 $15,500 $13,000 $14,400
20

21 NPV8 Post Tax $A per Share 3.75 2.20 0.34 2.28
22

23 EV / NPV 22% 23% 39% 12%
24

25 Share price / Theoretical 27% 24% 44% 13%
26

27 EV / Indicated Resource $74.25 $533.07 $643.84 $39.13
28

29 Near Term Upside Case Higher assumed Li2CO3 price, increase production from 20 ktpa to 25 ktpa Increased production from 25.5 ktpa to 51 ktpa Higher assumed Li2CO3 price, NPV8 Higher assumed Li2CO3 price, extend LOM from 20 to 25yr
30

31 Near Term Upside Price 7.98 4.76 0.54 2.90
32

33 Upside Share Price Ratio 12% 11% 28% 10%
34

35 PFS ✔️ ✔️ ✔️
36

37 DFS Expected Q2 2022 Expected Q1 2022
✔️ Apr '2019
38

39 Fully Permitted ❌ ❌ ❌ ESI granted Feb 2021
40

41 Minor Offtake ❌ ❌ ❌
42

43 Major Offtake ❌ ❌ ❌ MOU with Mitsui, 15ktpa for 10 yrs
44

45 FID

expected Q4 '21
46

47 Financing to FID ✔️ ✔️ ❌ ❌
48

49 Project Financing ❌ ????? UK Export Agency ❌ ❌
50

51 Management / Directors 21% <5% 12.50% 23%
52

53 Strategic Investor Gangfeng = 7.1%, Thematica = 4.9% ❌ ❌ not S/H but strategic relationship with Mitsui and Codelco
54

55 First production Q1 2025, full pdn mid '26 H1 '2024 mid 2022 (initial 2000 tpa) mid '2024

Not sure if this will be of interest to anyone else, but I'm trying to do a bit of a comparison between some of the Aus listed brine companies... Any feedback or corrections would be appreciated - I'm also posting this on the LKE site.
Expand
Wonderful comparison mate!

Simple and Comprehensive.

I also hope within the next quarter they can confirm the flowrates and sell concentrates in Q4 2023 that would smack the market hard and FOMO will kick in then. If they confirm the same arrangement with the Candelas asset after that... I'm incline to take a wild guess that our MC would easily be AUD 1 Billion. Look at LTR a nice MC of AUD 1.6 Bil with their DFS.

GLN should be ard the 1 Bil mark once JP and team get the Concentrate Offtake Agreement in the pocket. I guess it's just the need to prove the flowrate now before Offtakers can know how much to take or are at least secured of the promise to deliver cause we all know that Lithium is and will be in perpetual deficit until 2030!

Also in the recent announcement after raise there a sneaky little mention about earthworks being carried out. Pond earthworks? or just earthworks for access?

GLTAH, AIMHO, DYOR.

No.	Vol.	Price($)
8	618141	12.0¢

No.

Vol.

Price($)

618141

12.0¢

Price($)	Vol.	No.
12.5¢	38235	2

Price($)

Vol.

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12.5¢

38235

No.	Vol.	Price($)
8	618141	0.120
16	769545	0.115
12	495580	0.110
6	717833	0.105
14	689290	0.100

No.

Vol.

Price($)

618141

0.120

769545

0.115

495580

0.110

717833

0.105

689290

0.100

Price($)	Vol.	No.
0.125	38235	2
0.130	131250	3
0.135	147700	5
0.140	403415	5
0.150	50000	1

Price($)

Vol.

No.

0.125

38235

0.130

131250

0.135

147700

0.140

403415

0.150

50000

(20min delay)
Last 12.5¢		Change -0.025(16.7%)		Mkt cap ! $61.71M

Open	High	Low	Value	Volume
12.5¢	12.5¢	11.5¢	$810.3K	6.630M

Compelling opportunity, page-2804

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		GLN	LKE	AGY	LPI
1	Share Price	0.995	0.53	0.15	0.29
2
3	Primary Asset	Brine, Hombre Muerto West (100%), Argentina	Brine, Kachi, (100%) Argentina	Brine, Rincon Project (90%), Argentina	Brine, Minera Salar Blanco (51%) Maricunga, Chile
4
5	Production Capacity	20,000 tpa, 40yr LOM	25,500 tpa, 25yr LOM	2,000 tpa rising to 10,000 tpa, 16.5yr LOM	20,000 tpa, 20yr LOM
6
7	Secondary Assets	Brine, Candelas, (Arg):Hard Rock, Greenbushes, (W.A.)	Brine, Cauchari, (Arg): Brine, Olaroz (Arg)	Brine, Tonopah Project (100%), Nevada	Hard Rock, Tabba Tabba (100%), Pilgangoora, WA: Rock, Greenbushes (100%) WA
8
9	Primary Resource (LCE)	HMW Indicated = 2.267 Mt @ 946 mg/l, Candelas Indicated = 0.685 Mt @ 685 mg/l	Indicated = 1.005 Mt @ 289 mg/l, Total Resource = 4.4 Mt @ 211 mg/l	Indicated = 0.245 Mt @ 325 mg/l	Measured = 0.7767 Mt @ 1,175 mg/l, Indicated = 1.293 Mt @ 1,153 mg/l Total M & I = 2.070 Mt @ 1,167 mg/l
10
11	Market Cap (A$)	$284,175,537	$560,740,000	$187,540,756	$87,275,402
12
13	Cash on Hand	$65,000,000	$25,000,000	$29,800,000	$6,281,000
14
15	EV (A$)	$219,175,537	$535,740,000	$157,740,756	$80,994,402
16
17	NPV8 Post Tax $A	$977,380,951	$2,286,777,708	$444,315,734	$684,809,887
18
19	Assumed LOM Sales Price	$11,687	$15,500	$13,000	$14,400
20
21	NPV8 Post Tax $A per Share	3.75	2.20	0.34	2.28
22
23	EV / NPV	22%	23%	39%	12%
24
25	Share price / Theoretical	27%	24%	44%	13%
26
27	EV / Indicated Resource	$74.25	$533.07	$643.84	$39.13
28
29	Near Term Upside Case	Higher assumed Li2CO3 price, increase production from 20 ktpa to 25 ktpa	Increased production from 25.5 ktpa to 51 ktpa	Higher assumed Li2CO3 price, NPV8	Higher assumed Li2CO3 price, extend LOM from 20 to 25yr
30
31	Near Term Upside Price	7.98	4.76	0.54	2.90
32
33	Upside Share Price Ratio	12%	11%	28%	10%
34
35	PFS	✔️	✔️	✔️
36
37	DFS	Expected Q2 2022	Expected Q1 2022		✔️ Apr '2019
38
39	Fully Permitted	❌	❌	❌	ESI granted Feb 2021
40
41	Minor Offtake	❌	❌	❌
42
43	Major Offtake	❌	❌	❌	MOU with Mitsui, 15ktpa for 10 yrs
44
45	FID				expected Q4 '21
46
47	Financing to FID	✔️	✔️	❌	❌
48
49	Project Financing	❌	????? UK Export Agency	❌	❌
50
51	Management / Directors	21%	<5%	12.50%	23%
52
53	Strategic Investor	Gangfeng = 7.1%, Thematica = 4.9%	❌	❌	not S/H but strategic relationship with Mitsui and Codelco
54
55	First production	Q1 2025, full pdn mid '26	H1 '2024	mid 2022 (initial 2000 tpa)	mid '2024

Compelling opportunity, page-2804

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