Compelling opportunity, page-2557

Same type of deposit in the same country, GLN and LKE are very close peers.
LKE's Kachi project is about six months ahead of GLN's HMW.
- Kachi, DFS is expected to be completed by Q1 2022.
- HMW, DFS is expected to be completed by Q3 2022.

Kachi has a larger resource 4.4Mt LCE but at a very lower grade, 211 mg/l Li with higher impurities, 1Mt LCE is indicated.
HMW, has a smaller resource 2.3Mt LCE at over 4 times grade of LKE's, (Not including recently acquired tenement, likely to increase to over 3Mt LCE, imo), 2.3Mt LCE is indicated.

For a brine deposit, resource is only utilised around 1Mt LCE, so 1 Million tons LCE is a very good size, over 2 million tons LCE, are probably same, wouldn't make much different as most brine projects have annual capacity of 20,000 tons LCE to 60,000 tons LCE. Our neighbour Livent current annual production capacity is 20,000 tons LCE, has a plan to expand to 60,000 tons LCE over coming years.

GLN has another good size resource project in Argentina, Candelas, with indicated JORC 680Kt LCE. That's about 3 times of AGY's JORC resource. (AGY's market cap $175m, enterprise value $145m, well advanced, under construction for 2,000 tons LCE, with plan to expand to 10,000 tons per year for 16.5 years mining life). Candelas is currently under scoping study.

Valuation:
LKE, is currently valued at ~$552m.
GLN, is currently valued at ~$277m.

GXY: $2.3B, less cash and hard rock, their Argentina's brine project is valued at ~$1.5B, imo.

WA hard rock projects are given a very good premium, LTR is now reaching $1.8B market cap.





Ganfeng secured current and future lithium supply:

- Mt Marion: Current ~59kt LCE
- PLS: Current ~23kt LCE + Future (stage 2) ~22ktLCE
- Mariana: Future 20kt LCE
- Lithium Americas Cauchari Olaroz 30kt LCE (2022) + Future (stage 2) 15kt LCE
Recently 4 acquisitions:
- Minmetals: 10kt LCE (industrial grade) - Acquired 49% stake for US$225m
- Bacanora: Future 17.5kt LCE (stage 1) + 30kt LCE (stage 2) - Acquired 71.12% stake for GBP£190m
- Millennial Lithium: Future 24kt LCE – Announced cash offer for CAD$353m
- Mali Lithium: Future ~33kt up to ~67kt LCE – Acquiring effectively 45% stake for US$130m + funding US$62m

Currently, Ganfeng has 82kt LCE spodumene for their hydroxide capacy (80ktpa) and 10ktpa brine, by next year, Cauchari Olaroz should come online, then another 30ktpa, total lithium supply will be 122ktpa LCE by 2022.
They also secure ~23ktpa LCE spodumene from another African developer from 2023, total future secured lithium supply are about 223ktpa LCE based on all of these projects are fully developed.
Ganfeng's total current and future secure lithium supply are maximum at 340ktpa LCE.
To achieve the maximum capacity of 340ktpa LCE supply, it will take years.
Even achieved the maximum capacity in a few years, the 340ktpa LCE is just half way to their 2030's target of 600ktpa LCE. Based on historical data, many producers couldn't achieve full capacity. So they will need to secure more to meet their target.

To achieve their 600ktpa LCE annual production by 2030, Ganfeng needs to acquire at least Further 5 to 10 projects, imo.

GLN, HMW, likely to produce at least 25ktpa LCE; Candelas might be 15ktpa LCE, combined annual production would be 40ktpa LCE, imo.

Ganfeng announced 5 acquisitions over last five months, about one acquisition every month.
Let's wait and see what their next acquisition will be.





All imo.