Ok, my thoughts at the current state of play (just in point form as rather busy at the moment)
- Thanks to Highland Park, the top 20 now control 76% of the company (up from 65%) a year ago. Tight register and confirms to me any corporate activity will need to be on friendly terms.
- Increase in yield and BFS production to 11mtpa+ is obviously a significant boost, confirmed by increasing Haywood sp target / NPV calculations which should see another revision upwards following recent production announcement.
- I have a feeling big money is awaiting infrstructure agreements. I think this is underestimated by most. What is the spare capacity for rail? Will we be able to lockup the expansion capacity at Ridley terminal? Vista is looking to produce 11mtpa let alone what we may be able to produce from vista south and expansion is "only" 12mtpa, will this be ready by the time we are producing?. I think this is critical and look forward to news on this more than financing/offtake (believe it or not!).
- Financing/offtake, many different ways to skin a cat here and I look forward to see which way management go. In any case a robust share price is preferable heading into this phase so newsflow and a good sustainable share price response is important. Seems like the boys have their ducks lined up, wouldnt expect anything less.
- BFS should confirm Tier 1 asset status of the vista project and will most likely be heavily scrutinised by potentially interested majors. I would be hesitant to expect a takeover, but rather will look as a LT holder to maximise my investment by holding into production. If a reasonably discounted T/O offer brought forward this value then so be it, but to save disappointment just dont expect it.
- Technically I have us breaking up from a bull flag on the weekly chart as we have progressively breached several resistance levels on this rally. This provides for a target of $2.80 to $3.30. There was a false break of this bull flag in July (probably in expectation of the "mid year" newsflow that never came) so I'm cautiously optimistic. Breah of the high will obviously confirm it once and for all...obviously!
More I could rabble on about but thats about the gist of it.
All IMHO only
Good luck to holders.
CPL Price at posting:
$1.81 Sentiment: Buy Disclosure: Held
(20min delay)