re INVOSSA I looked into this a while ago.... Nov 2016 – Kolon...

re INVOSSA

I looked into this a while ago....

Nov 2016 – Kolon license Invossa to Mitsubishi Tanabe - $24M upfront, $410M milestone, double digit royalty. For Japan only
https://www.tissuegene.com/en_US/investors/pr/detail/10/tissuegene-licensee-kolon-life-science-partners-with

Dec 2017 – Miitsubishi cancel license contract due to breach associated with changing the contract manufacturer (seems they could smell a rat which gets borne out a year or two later!)
https://pulsenews.co.kr/view.php?year=2017&no=841322

Nov 2018 – Kolon re-license the cancelled Mitsubishi license (for Japan) to Mundipharma on even better terms. $26M upfront, $565M milestones, unspecified royalties. 15 year term only
https://www.ajudaily.com/view/20181119171815123

March 2019 – Labelling scandal. Company gets pulled up for having cells in the drug that they didn’t say should be there (their drug was supposed to contain only cartilage cells but instead kidney cells were detected). Sales in Korea suspended. P3 clinical trial in USA suspended by FDA. http://www.koreaherald.com/view.php?ud=20190401000631

April 2019 – P2 trial recruits file class action against Kolon for mislabelling.
http://www.koreabiomed.com/news/articleView.html?idxno=5626

May 2019 – Korean approval revoked
https://pink.pharmaintelligence.informa.com/PS125372/Invossa-Approval-Revoked-As-Korea-Confirms-False-Data-Submission

Feb 2020 – Kolon CEO arrested over false data an declatations
http://www.koreabiomed.com/news/articleView.html?idxno=7346

April 2022 – Despite all this history, they are able to pull of a large licensing deal ($600M) for Africa, Middle East and some of Asia with Juniper Biologics in Singapore.
http://www.businesskorea.co.kr/news/articleView.html?idxno=90862




Now look at this...........

So in short they licensed their drug (with a very shady history) for.....
JAPAN -------- 7% of the market for US$420-$560
MENA/Asia ---8.4% of the market for US$600M


Thats a deal size average of about US$75M per 1% of the global market (conservatively AUD$100M per 1%).

I'll do a Coppo now and just mention that the US market is about 50% of the global market, and Europe is another 24%........ and let you to figure out what crazy deal size we could achieve.