Information for Adacel investors

Adacel's full year results are due to be released this Friday. (It is also possible that they will be released on Monday). As the company indicated on its June 7 ASX statement, it will post a loss of around $7m for fiscal 2002. This loss is due entirely to the $7m cost of positioning ADA for the numerous North American contracts it has been winning. The main focus of the results for investors will be ADA's forecast for fiscal 2003 and beyond. Based on recent contract announcements, ADA's revenues should increase by more than 100% in 2003, and propell the company into a period solid and sustained profitability. Based on present information, analysts are forecasting 2003 NPAT of between $5m-$7m ($6-$8m for 2004). These figures are likely to prove highly conservative given that Adacel has many more contracts in the pipeline. (I note that ADA's Canadian Office, where most of the ATC simulation contracts are handled, has again begun to advertise for new positions).
For the last 2 months, as markets around the world have taken a tumble, Adacel's stock price has reflected a 'wait and see' attitude by punters. It has been caught in a trading range of 72c-84c with most of the volume occuring at 77-78c. On a technical basis, the stock is due for a break out above 84c. Whether or not this happens, and whether or not the stock will continue to rise in the medium term, depends on two key factors. First, there must be no nasty surprises in Friday's full year results, and ADA must confirm the forecast that their recent contract wins indicate. Second, the second phase of the huge USAF contract must be confirmed in October.

For those who are interested, the most detailed analyst report on ADA's results is likely to be written by Brent Mitchell at Shaw Stockbroking.

Interesting technical information on Adacel's products, as well as North American ATC industry news, can be found at www.vis-sim.org Click on 'last 30 days' and then type in Adacel in the search function.