Spacejunk & others,"Remember some time ago Astra Zeneca had a...

Spacejunk & others,

"Remember some time ago Astra Zeneca had a compound "Exanta" which was similar and failed late in trials because of liver toxicity."

But this compound hasn't failed. It's passed all the safety trials & it has now a passed phase 3, with 2,531 patients.

The results are pretty impressive.

"Lovenox and Arixtra remain are likely to remain dominant in the hospital market because an injectible gives surgeons and clinicians much better control, is instantly acting, and when your unconcious another needle doesn't really matter much."

Whilst it's true that injections can be administered to an unconscious patient, most patients are not unconscious.

Infact injections are very bad things. Remember most of these folks are not super fit bodies (like us). But are often very old and they often have injection site complications.

The tablet form is the way to go, imo. Bristol have a promising looking drug too.

Having said that, Arixtra will still command sales, possibly stablising around US$200m - US$300m. So whilst acl do have a very attractive product, Bioshares's $10+ valuation will never be achieved (unless the cancer drug goes well).

I have reduced the holdings on the three accounts I maintain.

ps. gsk Arixtra sales figures due on 25th July (uk time) which should show good sales traction.

cheers