Everyone's assuming Chinguetti cashflow will bankroll Hardman...

Everyone's assuming Chinguetti cashflow will bankroll Hardman from (late) 2005 onwards, but at the Melbourne roadshow last December Ted said that this depends on the oil price at the time. I think he quoted $18/barrel US a level where most of the cashflow in the early years would go towards paying down the bank loans, with not much flowing back to Hardman. I wouldn't want to see HDR loaded up with too much debt in order to hang onto the full 35% equity, and then getting in trouble if the oil price tanked for a couple of years (shades of Petsec in the late 90's). Probably the project lenders would require Chinguetti oil sales to be substantially hedged above this price, but that would also take away some upside.

Overall I think a sell down to ~25% plus an equity raising at the current price would both be a reasonable way to go, rather than getting too greedy.