Without the pipeline, it's really just a energy retailer that dabbles in EPC contracts and the EPC contracts are not profitable in the current economic challenges (Material inflation, shipping costs, material shortages etc) although I don't know what the post covid contracts look like to minimise cost blowouts but I'm sure they're decent.
- Energy retail is great non the less. $40m in revenue, $2m EBITDA. In 2024, we'd probably be looking around $60m+ in revenue, EBITDA $4m+. They haven't even entered into the NEM so who knows how much their revenue will grow.
- Yarra valley project $45m EPC but no one knows how much profit they'd actually make from such a big contract. Then we have the 2 year maintenance contract worth $7.3m which is straight into our pockets. Any construction based business model is small margins, I'm not a fan of EPC contracts because we don't even own them and they give us no value in the long term. They should be focussing on building their own plants but finance is the issue.
- NSW 1 can still be built if it's funded by Brickworks and profitable for us as we have a 50/50 Joint venture. I'm assuming the plant will be around $20-25m to build.
- The LGC's, they pay an initial fee but then it is returned to investors 3 years later at a profit for the business. They're basically securing future LGC contracts which is good for us.
Overall, with a pipeline, the company could be worth $200m+. Without the pipeline, maybe a $50m company. An example of this would be LGI, listing at a value of $130m but they have a solid portfolio of landfill sites and are actually generating their own biogas.
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