"Yeah, I think a lack of analyst coverage and a lack of engagement with the Australian investment community wouldn't be doing OMN's share price any favours."
It would have entered its listed life with the overwhelming majority of its shareholders having zero inclination to hold onto their "inherited" shares; why, I'll bet 90% of the selling in recent weeks has been by people who have no real idea what this business really is, and have made no effort to find out.
Which is sure to have created a major mis-pricing of the stock (one way or another).
"Maybe they might promote it more aggressively going forward. OMN management are based in the US though, so I don't know how convenient it would be for them to do this. Just another layer of inefficiency associated with their ASX listing I guess."
Personally, I don't care where management are based or how they care to promote the stock, or not, as the case may be... for all I care, they can be based on the moon and never communicate with the market any more than they are legally obliged to do.
But the thing in which I am interested is tracking these guys building a business over coming years (or failing to build one, as the case might end up being).
Because when I read the Information Memorandum - especially Sections 4.3 to 4.7, which relate to the business model and the nature of the market opportunity (without making mention of any dollar amounts) - then that doesn't "feel" to me like I'm reading about a mere $100m (US$70m) sized company; rather, it feels like a business that has the ability and scale to register Revenues in the many hundreds of millions of dollars.
Viewed another way, this company has an in-built fixed cost structure of some US$90m pa which doesn't feel like that much of a Revenue hurdle for this business - even if it is remotely successful - to start recording debut profits.
At least, to a digital knucklehead like me (and non-shopper, to boot),
phrases such as: "Network Business Model", "Networked Technology", "Networked Data", "Digital Media and Advertising", "Live Receipts Product", "Intelligent Parking Product", "Shopper Exchange Product", "Shopper Intelligence Product" , and "Shopper Profile Product"..
...when combined with a global target customer base spanning Retailers, Shopping Venues and Brand Owners [*]...
....certainly seems like it could be a source of several hundred million - or even a billion - dollars of potential business.
That's if OMN's products and services do indeed add value, which I suspect they could do.
And, with almost three-quarters of the share register now having turned over since the stock listed, I suspect that the "non-discerning" selling is approaching its end.
Accordingly, I have today started adding to my meagre holdings that were spun out to me from my Westfield holdings.
It is an out-of-character investment for me, but without too many hairy-chested assumptions, I can envisage this business making profits of US$20m, US$30m, and even US$50m in coming years.
Heck, if the unmet need is as large, and if OMN's s products and services are as differentiated and unique, as the information memorandum implies, then OMN's market value will be a multiple of its current level.
Because of the nature of the investment in terms of OMN's early evolutionary stage, the way I am playing this is to build a modest portfolio position - to 1.0% or maybe 1.2% of my capital.
It may either grow to 5% or 6% of my capital, or I might end up with a nice tax asset (aka capital loss).
It's called an "I-Feel-it-In-My-Bones" Style of Investing.
Not really something I recommend.
[*] Collectively, there would literally be tens of thousands of those around the world, and all OMN would need to do is jag a very small slither of the addressable market they represent, in order to turn a decent profit.
OMN Price at posting:
97.0¢ Sentiment: Hold Disclosure: Held
