Really think the cash backing counts for something. Market cap is now just $94m versus net cash balance last month of $225m. At their current cash burn rate of $110m per year, by this time next year should still have a good deal of cash left. However, I'd wager that by that time, we'll know whether the concept is a dud or not. If it's a dud, I expect there will be tremendous pressure on the board to conserve cash rather than continue to allocate precious remaining capital to a failed project.
In other words, I am arguing that OMN isn't the binary bet it appears to be.
If the project succeeds, shareholder value will be multiples of what it is now. If the project fails, we will know of this by this time next year at the latest, and there's plenty of scope to retain substantial shareholder value (for those entering at current prices) at that time.
In the case of the concept being a dud, maybe they might even be able to monetise some of their software assets, which they've spent $60m+ buying. Their digital ad platform (Shopper Exchange) has $2m+ annual revenues and 30+ retailers as customers. Their digital receipts business (Yocuda) is also revenue generating and has 20+ business customers. They have an intelligent parking business that counts some of the most high profile malls in the world (Westfield London, Westfield Century City) as its customers. I can't believe they are all worth nothing to everyone.
Either way, there's got to be light at the end of the tunnel soon. The share price can't keep going down forever, can it?
