concerns about avx (and pgl)

Posted by Boomer55 on the HC PGL forum.
Well written and worth a good read.
.......................................

I do have some concerns about AVX (and PGL) ...

So without trying to sound like I'm pouring cold water over AVX's science, each time I hear their management trot out the line ... 'every HIV drug that has made it to phase III has been successful', it sends up a big red flag.

In my head, I think ... BIG DEAL, this sounds like a con job! Each drug is different, shouldn't the likihood of getting through phase III be all about the science and statistically significant clinical results.

If PGL have indeed had a few HIV experts consulting to them on this project I'd like to see the full detail of those reports and who those so called experts are.

I am looking for a LOT more from both Companies than what they have put on the table. If the deal goes ahead, and at this stage I can't see myself voting in favour, it won't be long before the cash is gone. The 24 week phase III data may potentially be a key inflection point ... please be mindful that it can go both ways. Either through the roof or down the toilet.

Why isn't the big end of town jumping over themselves to get on board the AVX train ... NOW? Their apparent lack of interest to commit at this stage suggests they don't believe in the commerciality of AVX's science, in the same way that retail investors seem to have absorbed AVX's spin. AVX need cash right now, otherwise they are stuffed. Could it be that PGL's cash is simply a lifeline to get them to 24 week phase III data inflection point in the hope that something robust enough will emerge to attract the big end of town because they certainly don't seem sufficiently interested at the moment.

What will happen if the 24 week data isn't compelling enough to attract the big end of town? Does AVX simply use up the remaining capital to continue to push a seemingly dead horse?

Bio Techs are high risk. I believe investors should be focussing on risked outcomes, this is not a time for rose coloured glasses.

Last but not least, there is an odour about PI88 and I don't rule out that PGL management have been feeding us bucket loads of spin as well.

At this stage, I think I'd just like to grab $1.10, if that is possible, and get the hell out of PGL and move on.

I don't trust that either PGL or AVX, individually or collectively, have the capability to deliver any substantial value for their shareholders in the short or mid term.

I'd like to be convinced otherwise, so if you have contrary point of view I'd be happy to see a COMPELLING case supported with hardcore data. Please feel welcome to respond.