EMH 0.00% 28.0¢ european metals holdings limited

See here for elaborate article from June last year when SP was...

  1. 229 Posts.
    lightbulb Created with Sketch. 76
    See here for elaborate article from June last year when SP was at 76c http://www.seekingalpha.com/article/4082498

    I extracted the conclusion:

    European Metals is sitting on a massive lithium spodumene and tin-tungsten resource, the largest in Europe, and in the top 5 globally. Whilst the lithium grade is low, that is offset by excellent by-products, allowing the cost of production (net of by-product credits) forecast to be one of the lowest of any spodumene projects globally.

    The current PFS result of a post-tax NPV8% of US$540m is average, and not yet that impressive, especially considering the high Capex of US$393m. This is mostly as it was based on a mere 9.9% of the resource. However, my view is that the resource will grow substantially (~50%) during the next year, and the company will increase the forecast lithium production for the DFS, resulting in a significantly larger NPV. This was done by Pilbara Minerals with their stage 1 (NPV 10% of AU$709m) and stage 2 DFS (NPV10 of AU$1,165m).

    Valuation is attractive right now due to the disappointing PFS reaction, and because they are still at a relatively early stage. Given the low cost of production, huge lithium resource, the company should be able to progress with the next stages (DFS, permits, equity off-take partner). With each success, the stock price should steadily rise.

    My current price target is AUD 2.86 for end 2019 (3.7 x gain), with upside if they expand their lithium production volumes as I expect. I rate them a strong speculative buy.
    Last edited by marsch85: 11/01/18
 
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