Lots of good comment!
Ministry head in good alignment with Lynas - both wish to see clean tech move forward and both are involved in making it happen. Points for Lynas.
Source of pride to have only REE refinery outside China, it's huge and it's clean to boot. Points for Lynas.
Both antagonists are aware that the anti-Lynas mood is not held in general population any longer. That could change in an instant with any number of mishaps, but a mishap hasn't happened in years. Points for Lynas.
A discovery of something nasty by Fuziah and Wong et al is unlikely, not because I place any naïve trust in Lynas management from Day One, but because it's highly unlikely Lynas management would have mounted as rigorous a defense as they did were they guilty of corruption, short-cutting, etc. They knew doing so would enrage their enemies and did so anyway; enemies which had some power and which were easily seen (not just by me, but by Lynas) to be gaining power even before GE13. GE14 was predictable, almost inevitable outcome, though still surprising after the gerrymandering efforts of Najib, who is probably the most hated and most corrupt politician after Hillary Clinton. Bottom Line: Nobody throws stones if they live in a glass house. Points for Lynas.
As I've said more than once, Fuziah and Wong will do whatever they have to to stay in power. There is little danger posed by safe operations at Lynas and Lynas is about to begin paying taxes; Lynas is a source of pride to the community and country; Lynas employs many Malaysians and much local secondary business. F&W don't want to be seen to be vengeful, but responsible, and if they can find no reason to sanction Lynas despite looking as hard as they can, voters will be happy and F&W will, too. Both might be seen to have over-reacted if they don't find something, and that could be used against them, but they can easily skate out from under their past anti-Lynas animus by saying they didn't trust the previous government and nobody could argue with that. Points for Lynas.
Condisoil is a specific case. It will have to be addressed by F&W - NO MORE DELAY - and nothing could be better for Lynas than getting that sheet out the gate. There's no scientific reason why it shouldn't be approved, so it will be; hopefully in time. F&W may well demand and get further studies performed as one of the concessions they extract. Maybe another year of studies? Condisoil will have to provide a benefit to the agricultural community, so those yields better pop! They aren't going to approve spreading that sheet for nothing. At the end of the day, and IF yields pop, F&W will have to put their stamp on it (probably take some credit, too) and that would be POINTS FOR LYNAS.
The lack of mishaps is regularly touted here. That's naïve. I've worked in industrial settings and a past record is no guarantee of future performance. Thinking it is leads to a cavalier attitude towards the risks and that's leads to the mishaps. A good record does not change the seriousness, probability or consequences of a mishap. So a good record, which is just what should be demanded and expected, is really of little value to investors and changes nothing in the fundamentals. The pile of WLP is still radioactive and growing; anyone working on the pile is at much higher risk than anyone in the general population. Limited storage space is rapidly being consumed; remaining space needs to be used as a site for Condisoil production, because in my opinion there is no way to make a 1:2:7 WLP:NUF:inerts formulation elsewhere as it would entail moving radioactive waste off site.
Bottom Line: It's good to see things moving forward, but nothing has changed.
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