okay this is how i see things
you have FLT trading on an earnings multiple of say 22x
JET on a similar multiple say 20x, not 100% comparable, however they have a similar flavour.
MFS derriving 55% of their recurring income from a similar business and trading on price/ recurring income multiple of less than 10x, with a similar growth profile (this multiple falls to 7x by 2010)
if we rebase the forecast earnings of .45 * 55% = .2475 and then apply say a 15 times multiple to this (which was the multiple that MFS itself valued the business at, we end up with an implied value of $3.71/share. This is before we consider the funds mgmt business
This is very back of the envelope stuff, however i fail to see how people could short this stock, where there is so much apparent upside risk
I know that Fnds Mgmt is not the flavour of the month and multiples are being rerated downwards, but not to the point that it is valued at 4.8x times earnings surely
Thoughts?
MFS
mfs limited
