Happy new year to one and all.
As a way to end 2018 can i offer this...
Instead of debating the past, ie 5c to 41.5c to 8.2c and using that to determine the success of this start up, why not take a fresh look at the here and now. If you take away all the emotion of the run up and down plus the worst stock market performance since 2000 for small caps, and look at it from a new investor view point--- what would they be looking at moving into 2019 and beyond!
Lets break it down:
(1) Based off 9c the market cap is about $97m or $77m enterprise value.
(2) The cash burn is approx $13m per year.
(3) Revenue is growing each quarter at an average of 30-40% and expected to be $13m annually by the end of CY2019.
(4) Approx $20m in cash. Given the approx move to break even that should leave approx $12-$13m in cash when the company is cash flow positive. Using a base case of 35% growth per quarter as per my last post.
(5) Re-sellers are finally in a position to commence ( Ingram ) or recommence ( Digicel) sales in the IOT space. The Monster ( Ingram ) has awoken after an unanticipated delay of several months...non of the re-seller delays can be attributed to BUD. Ingram micro claimed they would not take on a product they could not sell 10,000 of.
(6) Mid 2018 launched "Carbon as an off set" and it is beginning to create sales PLUS we are a year closer to the Paris Summit monitoring deadline.
(7) Buddy stands by the three resellers calls that equate to a $79m 3 year estimate. Remember this is weighted towards the rear end of the contract and if they are behind on this they will have some catching up to do.
(8) Trials at 7 whales have been in place for an extended and varied period and all have progressed, one whale from 28 candidates to the final 2.
(9) Thor industries continues to demand further work and is expected to expand its roll out of smart vehicles across a multitude of lines.
(10) Parse has been sitting in the background gathering data ready to be commercialized in 2019. The size of this market is undetermined but potentially enormous.
(11) From what we have seen from BUD management in the first few years of existence, they have learnt what the market wants and adapted to that. Further new products and features are to be expected in 2019 making it an even more attractive option of energy conscience building owners, managers and occupier.
So as a new investor looking 2-3 years down the track ( even without a whale landing ) This business appears cheap on either a forward revenue multiple or on a forward ebitda calculation.
As always DYOR, happy new year and HOLDTIGHT.
