Lets talk sexy numbers folks. There are not many minnows like MEO with large working interests in projects with large proven gas. This week will see MEO confirm the productivity of commercial gas as two projects and will be a key step in MEO transitioning to a much larger company.
blurrt - lol. Nothing specific, just humour. Love it.
staz - Less than a third of current shares would be held by shareholders which are underwater. Hopefully by the end of the week, none will be underwater.
psi4eva - MEO style. Most likely will be just fine, but important to note that whilst the market will not attribute these numbers, in the event that some corporate activity is afoot, this is the underlying value.
oli - Griz has posted the image in the link.
Freehold - Pleasure.
Jazz - The POS% is based on the probability of the contingent resources making there way into reserves, i.e. have a path to market.
Griz - Thanks for taking the time. The CGR of 10bbl/mmscf I expect will be at the low end. I guess we will find out this week, but I think 25bbl/mmscf would be a reasonable expectation.
iam - the prices I am using are igv's (in ground values), as opposed to well-head (gross sales) numbers. Whilst, each Tcf of LNG would be selling at around $10billion+, in the most likely case, we are assigning an arbitrary $1billion/Tcf to reflect the NPV of the resource. This value is consistent with a project at this stage of development, similar values are used by Merrill's and other analysts and also is on-par with recent transactions in Australian LNG, including WPL's sale of an interest in Browse the other month.
ie $1million/bcf, as the Most Likely (mid-point) valuation.
There is a lot of upside from here.
WHTM are suggesting that MEO's entire market-cap is effectively underwritten just based on the gas already "found" at Gurame.
ort - all I have to say is that you are not only a suspicious character, but also a chap with some questionable pursuits. Are you doing much this weekend? LOL.
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MEO will have results from 3 flow tests to report in the next fortnight. Exciting times. Other than the obvious things, key wild cards to look out for include:
- CGR at Heron. Even relatively low levels of condensate are extremely valuable.
- Low CO2. Given all the gas at ES and Blackwood is high CO2, the value of gas with CO2 less than that just reported by KAR at Boreas (16%) would be extra important as it would allow blending, with or without TSMP.
- Any mention of TS, another Heron well, or Blackwood timing
- And over at Gurame, Oil/Condensate in the Belumai, specifically in the lower carbonate section.
Best of luck all. The Champagne is on ice, I have a great seat at the game, and ready for the opening ceremony in the morning with a Gurame update 20mins before open, then 5 mins before open Heron production test update, then an open a long long way from where the price closed at on Thursday.
MEO Price at posting:
28.0¢ Sentiment: LT Buy Disclosure: Held
