confirmation, page-34

Paul, you are over-dramatising the decline rate on MAD's wells.

First of all, you actually dont have any data which demonstrates what the "massive" decline rate is.

Secondly, the decline rate is relative to the IP. When you've wells that average 24 hr IPs around 50 bopd its not going to be too long before those rates are around the 10 bopd range, because the decay curves are exponential in nature, as you would know. So for starters, I would expect the 30 day IP of any of these wells to be around half that of the 24 hr IP rate, so even after 30 days we are talking about rates that are 25 bopd avg if the 24 hr IPs are 50 bopd. And after 90 days they're going to be half again, so 12.5 bopd.

Thats not too different from many other wells, particularly vertical wells - its all relative to the starting number.

As for number of new development wells, I expect the company has drilled 8 new wells in Feb, and 6 more in March (they were going to do 72 in 6 months after Feb). Let's see whether they meet their promise. They were going to have 5 rigs in Jan, 6 by Feb and 7 by March. With probably 2 for drilling high impact wells there's no reason why they couldnt drill the promised number with 4-5 rigs, in addition to the 8 workover rigs for reactivations and recompletions.

Cheers, Sharks.