Except the oil field deal has been independently valued at $75.6 million !
Source: http://www.xstate.com.au/files/file...Activity_and_Cash_Flow_Report_-_31_Jan_17.pdf
So if you have a new PSA in place, with this valuation of the deal that is possibly BETTER than the valuation previously given to the 4 Asian investors (before due diligence on the oil field deal had been finalized etc), then what price will the next CR be at?
$0.886m + Alvarez + Dempsey + the rest + recovery of deposit on "existing" PSA less legals + $75.6m oil field deal = let's say circa $77m just for kicks (very conservative).
Current market cap is $5.641m
Current SP is 0.009
New market cap $77m
$77m/$5.641m = 13.65 times greater
Let's say the new CR results in dilution of 50%.
13.65 / 2 = 6.83 times greater
0.009 x 6.83 = 0.061 FAIR VALUE PER SHARE
But, we're going to have to discount this significantly because our bargaining position isn't great.
Let's halve it just for fun.
0.061 x 2 = 0.031 DISCOUNTED VALUE PER SHARE
What price then should the next CR be at, at a minimum? IMO, 0.031.
Immediately after such, the SP should move to 0.031.
This would be 3.44 times greater than the current SP, representing a 344% gain for anyone who has bought at 0.009.
But remember, we discounted the price per share from 0.061 !
So it's fair to say that after all is said and done the SP would trend upwards, perhaps into the 0.05s
All personal opinion, pure speculation, DYOR, seek professional advice, also take a look at StockAnalysis' valuations on Alvarez and Dempsey for a reality check etc
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