conflict beginning to impact on phosphate

"Troubles in North Africa could be hurting production, with Tunisia and Morocco both affected."

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Fertilizer Prices Hit Seasonal Peak
Weekly Fertilizer Review for March 21, 2011

While farm-level fertilizer prices continue to rise on seasonal demand as farmers get ready to
head to the fields, costs appear to be topping out on wholesale markets, with most nutrients off
spring highs set in 2008.

Ammonia remains the most expensive fertilizer for farmers this spring, thanks to expectations
for a big increase in corn acreage. Prices in Illinois averaged $793 a ton last week, according to
USDA. That suggests costs could top the average seen in April 2008, the official benchmark for
the government. Ammonia is the only nutrient even close to extremes projected by our ?gspring
squeeze?h model.

Supplies of anhydrous are tighter around the world because a couple major suppliers are having
problems, including in the Caribbean. As a result the price out of the Black Sea continues to
creep higher, up a couple bucks last week. Producers there are reportedly booked into mid-April, with plants shipping out of the Baltic sold out until May. Forward contracts for May out of
the Gulf are steady about $22.67 lower than the $494.40 contract price for March.

Urea prices were steady in Illinois and Iowa last week, with USDA putting the Illinois dealer
price at $509 in a range of $475 to $625. That means prices at the farmgate level are fairly
priced, with only the high end of the range above our ?gspring squeeze?h price.

Prices on international markets fell again the latest week, with costs out of the Black Sea $45 off
their January peak. Quotes at the Gulf are starting to catch up, off $21.50 this week to $345 a
ton. Forward contracts for May out of the Black Sea are another $19 lower than the spot price
there, which equates to $465 at the farmgate level. Record winter imports into the U.S. are
keeping prices under control.

DAP traded mixed in the last week, with New Orleans down $5 to $550 but Tampa up $2 to
$565. Prices at the dealer level in Illinois tightened, according to USDA, with the average price
up $3 to $680, in a range of $650 to $710. That puts the average in line with our fair value price
of $670, with prices nowhere near the ?gspring squeeze?h risk.

Forward contracts out of the Gulf for May dropped $15 this week to $532.50, which suggests a
farmgate price of $640. Troubles in North Africa could be hurting production, with Tunisia and
Morocco both affected.

Potash prices moved higher again this week, with prices in Illinois up $6 to $592, in a range
from $540 to $660. With the recent increase in the Midwest terminal to $560, costs are in line
with fair value, though overpriced compared to the export price offered out of Canada.