The higher cobalt royalties are less of a worry given the supply side concentration (2/3rd global Cobalt supply comes from DRC) which will ensure that the levy becomes essentially a pass through. Copper would see a hit to profits however as copper supply side is much more diversified globally.
The super profits tax is a bigger concern for me as it takes away some of the operating leverage inherent in the mining business from the rising base metal prices for a producer that rides the full cycle. One can't simply use a much higher price curve for Bankable feasibility study, as a price too far away from spot will raise taxmen eyebrows and invite scrutiny and therefore be self defeating. I suspect this makes some projects less attractive for acquirers on the margin who mostly get paid via higher metal prices (i.e. operating leverage) than volumes as they ride the full metal cycle.
For NZC the issue can be ignored. When dealing with 50-100% IRRs, stripping some % of that due to these changes still keeps the projects super attractive. I'd rather pay more taxes to keep DRC government at bay than risk nationalisation of such assets because the government is not making enough dough.
Besides, the various NPVs would still be multiples of the current Market cap even if you do not bake in base metal price inflation (to reflect the super profits tax) and just basically use spot +/- 25% to run those numbers. The stock is simply illiquid so it falls with small blocks being sold. I already own a top 15 shareholder sized position and if it corrects more, I'd be happy to add.
Such issues come with the territory. Not much to fret about.
NZC Price at posting:
34.0¢ Sentiment: Buy Disclosure: Held
