Conjecture

As posted by excitingflynn on JAL - HC

BRL has already committed around 15m AUD for 20% interest in NWP, which is more than half our current market cap.

They have an option to gain 50% interest in NWP if they spend an additional $107m CA/ $117M AUD which is more than 4x our market cap.
As posted by excitedflynn on JAL - HC

It would make more sense for BRL to buy us out as they would gain 100% of NWP for pennies on the dollar.

15m + 117M = 132m which equates to 50% interest in NWP, valuing NWP at 264m.

If BRL buys us out at double our market cap, which is 50m, they will essentially paying 50m for the remainder 80% interest in NWP.

Based on the JV deal, 50% = 132m, 100% = 264m , thus 80% = 211.

Thus, BRL can gain 100% of NWP by paying $50m, instead instead of the implied value of $211m.

Surely this is a no brainer for them. Why pay 117m for 50% when you can pay 50m for 100% and all the other interests that JAL has.

JAL, a soon to be ESG leader in the coal industry is currently valued at pennies on the dollar right now.