FAR did the hard yards alongwith Hunt 8 yrs back & build up the relationship with the local govt. So with 2 decent finds I hope they plan on sticking around longer in Senegal. Musical chairs r quite common in multiple parties at the table.
As for Conoco, Cairn got them over for the deeper well Fan-1, so they may as well reduce their holdings from 40% to 20-25% & let Conoco b the Operator.
They've indicated shooting 3Dseis in the first half followed by a well later in 2015. Till then FAR can drill out the Kifaru well in Kenya & farmout the offshore blocks (to BG or Anadarko, eg) there for a free-carry drill or 2 & focus on further Senegal. Don't hold yr horses for WA as the 2 blocks r recycled frm Woodside-Apache with 4 drilled wells intersecting water wet sands.
No point in dropping 15% yet for a quick cash. Funding wise FAR should b ok till Q3-2015 & depending on where the SP is prior to drilling later nxt year perhaps do a CR then.
I hope the JV drills 2-3 more wells as part of their phase-2 program, ie Central Fan, Buried Hill & an appraisal well SNE-2, b4 assessing their situation with development leading to field commercialisation.
The current business meaning of Commercial is basically to do with the resource size (ie how big is it, how much can b recovered & how long can we drain the field for to generate freecash, example 10-15-20yrs field life).1100m is deep water & there's no FPSO available for a quick mobilisation, takes FEED & FID studies b4 it gets there alongwith longlead items, ie wellheads, xmas trees, umblicals etc.
As for SNE-1 they've reported sampling water yesterday. IMO, this is from the base of the Albian Sands & they should b in the OWC around the 2880m depth apprx.
Unlike FAN-1, the oil pay of 35m net appears clearly defined at SNE-1 (note: gas is lighter then oil hence the gascap & 32 API is basically 0.865 gm/cc density which is lighter then water which has a density of 1gm/cc or brine). So one recovers usually gas, oil & then water from the MDT sampling tool. The OWC can b clearly calculated frm the WL logs (ie change in pore pressure).
The oil quality recovered at SNE-1 is light & consistent, ie 32 API or 0.865 gm/cc so shouldn't require too much blending (depending on its other properties, ie Sulphur, viscocity etc).
Nxt steps at SNE-1 would b,
- to case of the open hole & have the sands behind the casing &
- then drill on to TD. Should b another 200-300m of drilling till TD in the second target, ie Carbonates, so max 3-4 days of action
- run WL logs on the openhole (say 200-300m, 2.5 days max trouble free basis)
- set Plugs & Abandon (retrieve the subsea gear BOP etc),
- do a subsea survey &
- Release Cajun Express to CNR-Svenska JV for their phase-2 drilling of 6 wells planned at the 23 API field Baobab (Ivory Coast).
That's my take on the Conoco scenario, as well as general Operations.
I think all other possibilities should have already been discussed by now here. Hope this helps.
Expand
(20min delay)