NXS 6.25% 22.5¢ next science limited

consensus, page-5

  1. 707 Posts.
    lightbulb Created with Sketch. 10
    NXS are certainly not close to Bankruptcy, assets easily cover debt.
    They are close IMO to being insolvent but will probably get through ok.
    31/12 bottom line $10m cash of that amount they can't access $5m as it is reserved for lenders. So adjusted they have cash $5m, receivables $5m less trade creditors $5m + Jan full cash flow net of operating costs + restricted March net cash flow - $3m admin costs = probably $6m free cash at 31/3.
    Undetermined LT fix cost is the elephant in the room, but the banking group you think would cover that to preserve their own security and value of the asset, the refinancing event is current but not mandatory so there is no company threatening pressure there.
    Even so you wouldn't want this going on a further month or so.
    Sale of Crux or CR makes everything irrelevant, but I raised the prospect of insolvency months ago .because they are close. They really dodged a bullet with no Crux impairment as it would have put the note holders in control - there is the lead IMO for what is happening in the background, auditors wouldn't have comfort from the Shell Put look through value or the MIMI transaction, they would be relying on a much more current valuation / negotiation to keep the book value in place.
    GLTA
 
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