Conservative $2-$3 SP EV Val, page-79

The article @LiBoy found and @dazaliam linked is well worth watching, even if you just watch the 1st 5 minutes.

It explains why the US government (and most other governments) needs a high inflation rate and suppressed interest rates, which is the most bullish backdrop for gold. Other commodities will prosper too, however most are also influenced by other factors (eg copper with economic activity) which is why he's 80% invested in gold (through gold companies like FFX).

For those that don't have time to watch it, I'll summarise his rationale. (using the US example, but other countries are the same)

The US has a 30 trillion dollar debt, it pays $400 billion per year on interest on that debt.
In the year leading up to covid (one of it's best economic years) the US collected $3 trillion in taxes etc, but spent $4 trillion.
If interest rates rose to 5% (which historically is very feasible) the interest cost would be half what the earn, they'd be insolvent.
They won't allow that to happen, so the central banks will suppress interest rates.
The only way to solve the problem, other than defaulting, is to have high inflation & low IRs. The inflation has the affect of reducing the real debt (eg debt relative to their revenue), but it also reduces the value of the dollar, hence investors turn to gold as currency will devalue.

He makes the point the Fed (and central banks) will never admit they want high inflation, as the moment they officially say that, their currencies will tumble.

He put the current weakness in gold down to the amount of speculation in the market, crypto currencies, tech, robinhood, however this will probably end in tears.

Interestingly he has a large investment in a developing gold company in Mali, and praised the pro mining environment the government provides.