Hi All, just tracking the good valuations others have posted here, based on the Morila Superpit Gold resource and Goulima Lithium Project:
First up, from
dgdgdm"Hi All,
Completed a quick NPV calc to estimate the intrinsic value of FFX shares based on Morila alone. My views only - please DYOR.
Outcome - it shows that if FFX can continue to execute, ie. prove up reserves and increase to 200 kOz/annum run rate as planned, we shouldconservativelybe worth at least 5 bags+ ($1.32 SP+) based on MORILA ONLY.
This is analysis is consideredconservativeas it assumes;
- Zero value for Goulamina ($A 1.2M post-tax NPV) in current SP
- Zero value for CIL 4.5 MTPA plant and associated infrastructure (worth $US 350M to replicate)
- Zero FCF generated this year (despite currently being cash-flow positive on tailings-only operations)
- Fixed gold price at $US 1800/oz (no gold price upside)
- Conservative long term average all-in costs of $US 850/oz (ie. 60% margin on cash costs provided from 09/02/21 ASX ann, this margin equates to >$60M USD/annum for G&A, exploration, sustaining & non-sustaining CAPEX which is very high for an established open pit gold mine).
- Fixed $A 75M loan facility (equivalent to total forecast CAPEX from 09/02/21 ASX ann) @ 12% interest to cover other future capex/opportunities
- No future increase in 4.5MTPA plant capacity (unused sag mill anyone?) which would increase 200kOz/annum run rate
- No identification of other high grade zones or Morila 2.0 which would increase 200 kOz/annum run rate
- Closure of mine after 3Moz gold produced (hence terminal value of 6) - excludes the huge Morila geological upside, 10+ years of upcoming drilling and tolling opportunities from nearby exploration projects.
- No consideration of existing tax credits nor future depreciation & amortisation tax credits
- No further gold mine acquisitions from >$A 125M/annum free cash flows
What's more scary is that with a current EV of $A 180M and forecasted 80% EBITDA of $A 195M if we can execute, which Alistair and the team will, our hypotheticalforward EV/EBITDA would be <1at our current SP which is just not plausible. RSG in Mali for example currently have a EV/EBITDA of 4 at their current SP, whichfurther emphasises there's at least 4-5 bags on the table here for FFX.
FFX is a billion dollar company in the making, even without Goulamina.
Disclaimer: my views only - please DYOR.
dgdgdm.
"
And then this chestnut on the FFX resource from
Gusty (hope I got that right), with a an NPV of $1.5Bn for the Lithium asset.
Given the shrewdness of management, and their ability to squeeze maximum value out of their positions:
we are currently looking at an NPV for FFX of $2.627 BILLION AUD and a current MC of $207.2M AUD.
The SP based on the above SHOULD be in the order of 12.6 times the current, namely: $3.29 AU.This is only the beginning! And with the gold pouring, we have the cashflow to move and manoeuvre the company as we please!
IMO, the catalyst for the MASSIVE re-rate that needs to occur will be the pending announcements, and so get ready and increase your position as we move closer to that news coming out this week!
GLTAH.
This is the week the FIREFINCH rises!!
