Yep, it's easy to lose sight of the various stages of development, forgetting that there is no template for what these guys are doing, no one has even vaguely attempted this scale, or quality enhancement in process, and each step up requires sales to place the pending volumes, as far across the range as possible.
Once the first two trains were stabilised we've seen a regular lift in production, then a period to bed that down right across the business, then when the timing is right, another lift in production.
We've just seen 2 Q's of stabilisation Dec & March (still delivered impressive HY numbers) and now we are about to see another uplift, developed & refined over next 6 months, then another significant uplift, 3 months to bring the new train to steady state, then further optimisation work.
They've got pretty good at this past 3 yrs, now the really interesting thing will be what they can do with operating cost per kg produced, all the way thru Sept & Dec Q's 19.
Top left Operating Costs vs Production tell a key part of the story as it is a major lever on the business within Lynas control, HY tends to be the period where they deliver the upside, so what will HY19 & HY20 look like in that progression?
Best explanation of my thoughts on at least partial realisation here, next 18 months should also intersect some strong growth in end mkts and a more mature Chinese industry reflecting true costs.
LYC Price at posting:
$2.21 Sentiment: Buy Disclosure: Held
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