Ozj, I will respond to your comment while simultaneously address comment made by 4profit because both are related.
@4profit, in regard to your comment stating that SAS would be unaffected by sovereign risk because it has no infrastructure on the ground is absolutely false and I will explain why that is. It is true that SAS has no infrastructure on the ground but the fact is that they need one. If they don't have it then, as far as I understand it, SAS must piggyback on entities who do ie. telcos. The same telcos who own multibillion dollar local infrastructure AND MOST IMPORTANTLY the spectrum that is unique to each countries that SAS allegedly intend to service. You need to realize that the internet is a web of servers and all of them are on the ground. My understanding is that, in order to connect to them and thus connect to the internet SAS MUST have agreement with telcos, strong, binding, commercial offtake one. This means commercial offtake contracts with giants like MTN, etc AND MULTIPLE OF THEM depending on how many cover each countries and who owns what spectrum. Without agreements with them, ie multiple of them all over the globe, then SAS simply can not connect to the internet and thus will not be able to be commercially viable. Messaging apps, banking platforms, etc all run via ground servers, ie local ground servers pertaining to their operations. So my view is that if no telco = no infrastructure = no spectrum = unviable SAS. It is also worth noting that I am pretty sure that I remember reading in one of SAS announcements that they are intending to build ground station somewhere in the UK, which no doubt would also need to be funded.
@OzJ, you are right in that it is unlikely that even if SAS is able to launch 20 pearls that they would be able to provide any worthy service that would generate revenue. Thus they would need even more CR still...Not only would it be because of the reason that you have outlined but also because what I have mentioned above, in my response to 4profit's comment, in bold. My view is that most if not all of the MoUs that SAS have signed are with dubious spec companies. For example universal cyberlinks and innovsat (check their streetview location), I believe, are nothing more than backalley, very small, reseller of simple equipments.
As for funding issue, based on my understanding and calculation it is not just whether or not SAS gets any funding but also how much they get and when they get them. This is because, assuming the pearls only have 4-6 years of operational life (because of exposure and orbital decay) then they would need to be replaced every 4 years. This runs in line with what SAS mentioned of their intention to replace 25 percent of the pearls every year. As such there is very limited time window in which SAS MUST launch all of their satellites in if they truly intend to have the full 200 up at any given time in the future. Based on my calculation and understanding they must launch AT LEAST around 68 pearls/year at a cost of 70 million/year, for 4 years, operational cost included. Without launching that much then SAS will never be able to reach 200. For example, if launch only 20 pearls per year, then on the 4th year of launch the first batch of 20 pearls would already have to be replaced. Thus SAS would forever only have 80-100 pearls or so and will never go above it. That is just simple mathematics.
So the question is would SAS be able to get 50-70 million in the next CR?
If SAS only raise some millions then that would inconseqential amount and would only be enough to kick the can down the road to infinity....would be truly nonsensical by simple mathematics.
SAS Price at posting:
6.9¢ Sentiment: Sell Disclosure: Not Held
