Bewbybill, Interesting point and good thinking but i think u have to really look past the losses and most likely this financial year and try to create a clearer image/visual in the mind of what cer's potential can be, once the short term noise is removed from the current market environment and what they are likely to achieve further down the track; also realizing the quality of the malls, which are typically geared toward non-discretionary retail spending,with many supermarkets and fresh food stores located within, that is very useful to the weekly shopper which is mainly groceries and everyday items from quality mall tenants i.e. Safeway,Coles, Aldi e.t.c. just to name a few.....N.T.A might have some impact this financial year but longer term is the bigger picture for me and other professional long term investors.
If the sp is not a bargain at current prices....Then what is a bargain???...You see people want to jump in when everything is all "Rosy" but keep in mind multiples are made at lower prices not higher prices so safety is all good but returns are less due to your "Fear Factor" so really it's to late in my opinion when the sp is heading towards 50,60,70 cents or 1 dollar and everything seems back to normal in a few years.This is way to safe imo as real money is made by your personal beliefs within and if you don't have any beliefs within or any type of faith within, then life on earth is a pointless exercise ...
When companies fail and are in a distressed state; then providing your analysis is based on common sense thinking you should be able to gain in the longer term once issues and other relevant matters are resolved in the short term.
If u don't like playing the game this way then psychologically all your life is based on What If's >"Fear"<...I'm not concerned with the current/short term sp as my rewards are reaped later on.So let the popularity contest continue but in the longer term the stockmarket is a weighing machine i.e. price meeting intrinsic value.
If the assets weren't recession proof then personally, i wouldn't be investing in this or any company for that matter. What's important atm is cer is a listed property trust which either owns the malls outright or co-invests with cnp or thru the managed funds which are the syndicates, Thus enabling cnp to be the Responsibly Entity.... i.e. a provider of management,leasing and development.If cnp had issues or didn't remain on as R.E then cer continues which to me makes sense as cer balance sheet is easier to work with than cnp atm.
The operating performance was pritty much sound minus the writedowns and impairment in super.Once the extension is granted then time will heal this company(cer).Even though property valuations might be on the decline in the short term but remember over the long term that value can easily be picked back up by cer and cnp.
The current gearing will be reduced over time due to revaluations i.e. "Longer Term View" and future asset sales.As long as we don't sell to many assets over the short term i feel "Very Comfortable" holding cer over cnp atm as current market conditions is only temporary and when investors realise this, then it might be to late as most listed stocks on the asx will be already moving up and there goes any chance of bottom picking and multiple gains in investor returns/(SP).I would rather cer sell a few assets that way we can maintain and grow our net property income over the long run.
Cheers Bill
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Bewbybill, Interesting point and good thinking but i think u...
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