CER 0.00% 32.0¢ centro retail group

Bewbybill, I won't go into a full analysis as this is time...

  1. 446 Posts.
    lightbulb Created with Sketch. 17
    Bewbybill, I won't go into a full analysis as this is time consuming and if i had the time i would probably write a book on the market and cover various psychological approaches as well as some common sense thinking in times of fear but simply don't have that time.I will though summarize some basic points...

    Firstly,unless Analysts have crystal balls then they are in the same boat as Private Investors + Mum's and Dad's in the short term.Your comments on short term outlook for reits maybe true but my thoughts and reasoning is based on value 4-5 years down the track which i truly believe that is the number 1. criteria as a bear minimum investment for a long term holder like myself.

    You see Bill, when the market moves to far to fast then be on "FULL ALERT" the same principles can be applied to a decline as well... providing these aren't artificial highs and lows and can be justified by business performance thru current share pricing..

    Keep in mind that stockmarkets move in cycles and when ever there's a bull market that's when buying anything and everything becomes easy as prices just rise; the opposite is also true for bear markets panic selling...

    In a nutshell the good times in big big rises in sp in such a short time frame and revaluations might be a warning signal that a reverse might take place which we see happen today.When something is overdone then u expect a correction very soon.Market has gone from one extreme to another.

    Analysts and fund managers/brokers keep changing their buy and sell recommendations, the reason being short term sp movement nothing more nothing less.Only the professionals are focused on the longer run.

    What to look for in a fund manager or analsyst is consistency and not focusing to much on short term noise but looking beyond the current mess and being rational in decisions where others might panic.

    I'm not sure if you're a short term trader or a long term investor but if you are a longer term investor then probably best to analyze the company i.e. core business and ask yourself the question is my shares worth such and such...Keep in mind over the long run share prices will and should mirror the business performance...Simple task work out what your shares are worth by valuation and in depth analysis and if you bought shares under that intrinsic valuation of the specific business then don't panic if you're a longer term holder, as there must be a meeting point between price and value soon as they will crossover at some point down the track.

    So will cer,cnp,wdc,cfx,sgp,mgr e.t.c. be around in the next 5-10 years does the public need these shopping centres,hotels,car parks and commercial offices are they located in ideal positions that don't interfere with direct and indirect competition.Are occupancy levels being effected by current market conditions.Where will interest rates be in the coming years.Is popluation increasing at a greater rate,will credit be available over the longer term.(lol) off course it will cause banks are in the game to make money not to lose year after year after year...So their will be a point where banks start functioning as normal hence the crisis can't last forever. This is yet another market cycle until a new bubble forms.

    Welcome to the market and enjoy the roller coaster ride...
 
watchlist Created with Sketch. Add CER (ASX) to my watchlist

Currently unlisted public company.

arrow-down-2 Created with Sketch. arrow-down-2 Created with Sketch.