consmin takeover bid looming, page-2

CONSOLIDATED MINERALS* 93p BUY target 117p - Rival takeover offer
potential as Elman (Noble Metals) resigns from board


Manganese ore prices appear to have moved beyond our expectations (see
article below)


+> It looks as if the prices published in the Metal Bulletin are some
way behind
what is being realised in China <+


The following price increase if applied to this year only adds US$10m
of value
to our NPV of the cash flows and equates to a 2p per share in our
valuation


If the manganese ore price increase is applied on a long term basis
then this
adds $143m (29p/s) to our valuation


Sensitivity: a 20c/mtu price increase = $35m in NPV. A 20c/mtu increase
= 7p/s


Note also that Richard Elman, who runs Noble Metals, has resigned from
the
board. Noble Metals is the trading house which sells ConsMins’ ores
into China.


Noble Metals might look to make a rival offer for Consolidated Minerals
and this
could be the reason for Elman’s resignation


If manganese and chromite ore prices in China are so far ahead of the
UK
published Metal Bulletin prices then consolidated Minerals might look
far better
value than we have been able to calculate on previous market
information.


“A Chinese ferro-alloy news letter states the following:

Manganese Ore Price Has Increased by 25% This Year Manganese Ore

It is reported that international price of manganese ore has increased
by nearly
25% since the end of 2006. Price of high grade manganese ore (Mn
48-50%)
has climbed from USD2.5-2.7/mtu FOB to USD3.1-3.3/mtu FOB. According to
producers, price of spots to be delivered in April has exceeded
USD3.3/mtu.


A European major producer of manganese ore said that the price was
around
USD2.7/mtu half a year ago, and began to slightly inch up since
September
2006. Entering December, supply of high grade manganese ore appeared to
be
tight, while demand has been increasingly powerful. It is reported that
a major
ore producer in Europe has even lifted up price to USD3.5/mtu
recently.”



*Numis Securities is NOT a broker or advisor to Consolidated Minerals.
Numis
Securities does make a market in the shares in the UK.