ANL- More old news/ More Questions for my 'M' friends
Merriwether98, my favourite 'M' friend, and most faithful ANL fan, finds my posts a bit stale, but I think that the past sometimes has a few insights to reveal. Here are a few more posts about ANL and the Arbitration Hearing.
From hardrock 22/03/01 20:32
I happened to hear that some lawyers in Perth had a big party when they got a chance to see Fluour Daniel's defence. Make what you like out of that...
reply by Maudib 22/03/01 20:47
What I believe it means is that ANL will score a big payday once arbitration has be finalised.
rewlin 22/03/01 09:19
yes basically you are correct when the judge hands down his final decision in feb 2002 it is final for all parties no comeback,then if anl is successful which i believe they will be as they've already received a payout from the insurance policy based on the same facts that flour daniel did not meet their contractual committments, then the arbitration proceeds will be allocated to anl shareholders as you detailed in some form ie special div or some other form, even if they dont get the full amount its still good for anl s/holders.
Maudib Thu 3-Jan-02 11:30
Arbitration against Fluer coming up at the end of the month. ANL has a $1billion claim.
Good production plus successfull claim results will see the instos back. Payday should see the expansion of Murrin Murrin and Mt Margaret becoming a reality in the medium term.
Maudib Tue 8-Jan-02 15:14
Seems as though my prayers are finally being heard.
* Production at 75-80% * Good article in AFR the other day with new CEO * Nickel prices spurting along nicely * $1billion arbitration claim against Fluer coming up * Buyers flocking back - I wonder if its the shorters closing their positions?
Can it hold its rising momentum or will it be bashed down again?
Maudib Wed 9-Jan-02 12:07
I too hear rumors that Anglo is buying.
ANL seems to be finally getting its act together. Hopefully a big pay on Fluer arbitration.
Maudib Thu 10-Jan-02 22:26
A few more days of good volume and au revoir!!!
Good to see that the company is devoting all energy to Murrin Murrin.
28 Jan coming soon. Cant wait for the arbitration proceedings to start.
Mangrove Mon 21-Jan-02 13:24
Shares Weekly Just ran a very positive full page alert on ANL.I got a copy from my broker but can't put it on HC. Well worth a read if you can get a copy. Maybe someone can post it. Regards M.
Maudib Tue 22-Jan-02 09:09
Interesting speculation in the AFR today. A settlement being reached early rather than a lengthy arbitration could be a big bonus.
maverich Wed 23-Jan-02 20:06
talk of impending settlement with Fleur, figure being touted is 150M$, this would really kick the price along and just the shot in the arm they need.
Billy Gatess Wed 23-Jan-02 20:48
Have a read of this........i have a feeling its settlemant is $200 mill
-------------------------------------------
Anaconda said to be ready to settle $1 billion claim January 23, 2002 RUMOURS are flying that Anaconda Nickel could be nearing a settlement on its $1 billion legal claim with engineers Fluor Daniel.
Talk on the terrace has it that Anaconda's new boss Peter Johnston is believed to be ready to put an end to the dispute just one week before legal arbitration is set to begin.
The Australian Financial Review yesterday reported that Johnston may even accept between $100 million and $300 million in settlement from Flour, without quoting sources.
The case, now in its third year, relates to mechanical failures and the cost of rectification work that delayed completion of the company's Murrin Murrin project by 11 months.
Anaconda shares, which have risen steadily since the start of the year, were 2c higher at 82c today.
arthurd Thu 31-Jan-02 12:38
If you go to nine msn site you can read the announcement ,
http://investor.ninemsn.com.au/company/ANL-A.ASP
I also picked this up on my way I can not verify this one as it is from Ozestock site,
************ From Ozestocks site
I have a close contact working on the litigation team (I wont disclose which side)involving Anaconda. This action is currently about to commence at the Melbourne Supreme Court on 28 January 2002 (Yes they are sitting on a public holiday). It is my information, as previously mentioned on Shaws News & Views section a day or two ago, that both parties are very close to a commercial settlement which will bring substantial cash into ANL. This should result in a significant further upswing in the ANL share price. I notice that the price movement appears to be anticipating a good settlement for ANL and that is my mail as well. I believe a settlement is imminent - it's horse trading time. Settlement possibly by 25 or 28 January. Here's hoping.
Good luck
********************************************** ARTHUR post items on Hotcopper to generate genuine comments and constructive feedback . I am not an adviser ,so please do your own research. I hold ,GTG,HRK
beavau Mon 4-Feb-02 22:37
Just heard on ABC News that Forest has sold around one third of his interest in ANL for $8m.
Anyone have any more information? I can't spot anything on any of the usual sites, including ninemsn.
If the quoted numbers are reasonably close, the sell price would seem to be at below market.
Maybe time to get the Doctor's opinion.
reply by Maudib Tue 5-Feb-02 09:03
Article in Fin Review about sale. Reasons are understandable. More important in the article is the upbeat assessment by the new CEO Re: Murrin Murrin.
Also, big question is: Who bought the shares. My guess is one of the top 2 shareholders.
Mangrove Wed 6-Feb-02 12:21
Putting on a few cents every day or so.With a new management team in place,Glencor and Anglo cashed up,nickel prices rising,the Fleur Daniel arbitration likely to yield a positive result,$1.50 looks promising in the next month.Needless to say I hold ANL.Regards M.
Maudib Fri 8-Feb-02 12:25
ANL has at the moment more plus's than minus's.
We are in the middle of arbitration and the market seems to be banking on a big pay day.
We have had the recent shutdown, hence one should expect production to be purring along as prior to the shutdown they we doing some good numbers.
Yes we have a mystery buyer for Andrews shares and strong on-market buying at the moment.
Good nickel prices and if they can address their long term debt i.e refinance at better interest rates then we really will be in business for the long haul.
Plenty of pain last year, but I feel we have turned the corner.
I feel its decision time for the top 2 shareholders. Maybe its time to make the bold move before the price runs away.
Maudib Tue 12-Feb-02 12:17
Something seems to be brewing. Massive support on the buy side. Plenty of speculation though, i.e. takeover rumors and payout Re: arbitration.
end
Pardon me for asking, but -arthurd and Pa28 excepted- are you guys for real? I mean, this type of faith is fine for the christian who is to become the lion's dinner, but for a shareholder? Pa28 was the only one to revoke the faith I believe. No doubt my 'M' friends have a Happyclappers Hallelujah planned in the event of ANL surviving, but methinks they should also plan a few "we waz dudded" misssives in case ANL kicks the can, so as to restore some credibility.
My own guess is that ANL will have a settlement of about 300 million AUD made against it from the Arbitration Hearing and go into receivership shortly afterwards. I base this on my view that while ANL may have some grounds for its action, the Hearing has also allowed ANL to delay paying Fluor Daniel, and courts often take a dim view of parties that don't pay up. By delaying payment, I believe that ANL has gained two essential benefits. Obviously, it bought ANL time. This has given the company a chance to make Murrin Murrin a profitable operation and so survive. Also, it maintained investor interest in HPAL (by blaming Murrin Murrin's failings on a third party), allowing it to raise more capital, essential for developing Murrin Murrin. But time may well have run out for ANL.
Entrepreneurs have grand visions and boundless and infective enthusiasm, and are essential for keeping the wheels of Australia's industrial engine turning. They also often have huge egos and a belief in their projects that borders on delusional. This is fine when the dream is realised or exceeded, but intensifies the disaster when the dream fails, both from a failure to listen to advice and a realisation that the project is a failure coming much too late, if at all.
The behaviour of entrepreneurs when things go awry is well examined in Paul Barry's "Rich Kids". I found it a great read, and I was particularly amazed by Jodee Rich's view of how Imagineering and One.Tel collapsed. In both cases Jodee held tight control over the decisions made and company status, and seems not to have listened to the advice of others. But Jodee insisted that his management was sound and that the failure of both companies was due to the failure of others, or factors beyond anyone's control. When Jodee was confronted with evidence that he may have made errors of judgement, Barry seemed to have a bit of fun in quoting Jodee's stock reply, "That is absolutely false.".
Obviously, entrepreneurs aren't all from the same mould; Mr Forrest has not profited to anywhere near the same extent as Jodee and has never been accused of any impropriety, for example. But I do find comparison interesting in light of Barry's work, in that all of Murrin Murrin's troubles are claimed to be the result of mistakes by Fluor Daniel, and that Anglo's attempts to have a greater role in the management of ANL in the first half of 2001 was resisted with such hostility.
Again, this raises the question for my 'M' friends, "What disclaimers for HPAL and Murrin Murrin were you aware of when you invested in ANL?". I'm sure that these disclaimers exist, and I would be grateful if anyone could post them.
Also of interest to me was this post by CXLshareholder Mon 6-Aug-01 21:30:
Central Exchange
Central Exchange is currently trading at $0.023, giving a market cap of about $1,495,000 on approximately 65m shares. In its fourth quarter report released on the 31st of July 2001, cash reserves were $1,702,000, so it is currently trading at about 88% of net asset backing.
However, CXL is potentially owed significant sums for the sale of mining leases.
The first is an agreement from 30 March 2001 with Big Bell Gold Operations Pty Ltd (a subsidiary of ASX listed New Hampton Goldfields Ltd) to dispose of the tenements associated with the Cuddingwarra Project and its interest in the Fleece Pool Project for a maximum potential consideration of $760,000.
The second is the real goldmine. CXL originally sold Anaconda its nickel leases for around $18,330,165, (indexed to the CPI and currently worth about $20m), contingent on a combination of several possible trigger events having occurred.
It seems clear that the first trigger has now occurred, although CXL is having to take court action against Anaconda to obtain information to confirm this (see company announcement quoted below). The second condition that must occur for the amount to be payable is that the average price of nickel for the 12 months preceding payment must be above an indexed trigger price, currently $US3.95/pound. All of the above facts can be confirmed via the Company Information and Past Announcements web pages on the ASX site.
Although the price of nickel fluctuates significantly, the average trigger price has been achieved during the past 12 months, and there is a high probability that it will occur again subsequent to the contract trigger date.
As a result there is a high probability that sometime in mid 2002 CXL will have net assets of more than $20m, giving a net asset backing per share of more than $0.30. (i.e. 15 times what it is currently trading at).
One of the following may also occur prior to the Anaconda contract becoming payable.
1. A third party may launch a takeover for CXL. Even at a significant premium to the current share price the payoff would be significant. 2. CXL may negotiate a settlement with Anaconda for a reduced sum. 3. CXL may sell the contract to a third party for a fixed sum.
In any case I see significant upside to this stock.
Disclosure: I hold 100,000 CXL. Disclaimer: I endorse the red disclaimer below.
end
Looking at recent releases by CXL(66million shares app), last traded at 0.022 AUD, the 18 million odd AUD payout due from ANL in September equates to about 0.27 AUD per share. This raises the possibility that my 'M' friends could hedge their bets by shorting ANL (or selling some of their own shares), and/or buying CXL. Is this a valid strategy? The strategy has no interest for me as I may be revising my rating for ANL from RIHL(rapid irreversible hair loss) to DTD(down the dunny), but it could be Manna from Heaven for the faithful.
Disclaimer: I have no interests in ANL or CXL. This post represents my honest opinions only, which may well turn out to be false. For those readers who wonder why I bother posting such a lot of waffle, at least take heart that I don't post often.
