BRR
A marathon post the other day - I gave you an early tickup just for the effort. Leaving aside your unfortunate regular agenda of liberally sprinkling headkicks to the Board, the post nevertheless summarised a massive amount of data about the Notes, and amounted to a significant 'heads up' - well done!
Of course every investor has to be responsible for their own research. Unfortunately on further casual reading of your post, not everything is up to snuff. In my view it is always handy in attempting this sort of detailed stuff if you double-check all the facts, lest others be inadvertently misled. No arguments there. While the ongoing dilution of the stock is a concern to any investor, on my reading a couple of minor points about your post jumped out, and are probably worthy of mention (you did ask for feedback):
1. As LTinvestor and myself have agreed separately, a future consolidation of the stock applies across all securities, including Notes and unlisted options etc, and I didn't see where you made this clear amongst all the excitement.
2. I was disappointed with this point you made:
"Currently Harmony hold most of the Secured Notes of which there are about 107,098,880 -- now try converting these to ordinary shares today --- 107,098,880 (times) face value @ 0.135 (divided by 90% VWAP) @ $0.0009 = 16,064,832,000"
"That's right -- Harmony could, for no cost whatsoever, convert tomorrow and receive over 16 BILLION SHARES".
"Therefore the status quo is this - Harmony could easily seize control of the company, and in the process dilute many shareholders out of any meaningful existence"
Not sure if you have been asleep at the wheel for a prolonged period of late, but (with respect) this paragraph was unhelpful because you have apparently missed that Harmony no longer hold any Secured Notes in the Company. So...er....NO ....they cannot pick up 16 billion shares 'tomorrow', but thanks for the scary thought. Any shareholder following this stock will be fully aware that Harmony (then the major Noteholder) were not in a position to further extend their Notes back in 2011, and wanted out. There was an approved temporary 6 month Notes extension to give the Board time to locate someone to buyout the Harmony Notes, or we were finished right there. This is where ASOF entered the picture, and shareholders will recall that the December 2011 shareholders meeting voted to accept the ASOF deal to buy out/lockdown the notes for the time being - to 2015 (I recall).
I hope this small clarification of some minor points helps to avoid 'some' confusion. Of course my post today is 'not' an attempted overall review of the enormous detail in yours. I guess the couple of examples provided just underline again that this Forum is always interesting, but can only present opinions of those of us with our own beliefs about aspects of the unfolding story - so again everyone needs to DYOR, and don't forget the Hot Copper MST family is only about 4% of all MST shareholders. Hmmm.
In closing I would like to make a considered observation from my perspective. With regard to the legitimate shareholder concerns about dilution - it's a tough call but at the end of the day IMHO there are no free lunches in getting a new defence stock to market. I think it is obvious the shareholders have had to recognise the Note deals by the Board have been a 'necessary' evil about keeping the Company alive - failure with the Notes was 'death' for us all long ago. Period. On the other hand, the somewhat unpalatable (but nevertheless good news) is that shareholders 'have' had the opportunity 'if they wish' to repeatedly average down (i.e. buy more shares) to counter this dilution. There is nothing easy about this story - but as you said yourself recently - "no risk - no reward". Absolutely correct!
Good luck to all.
BRRA marathon post the other day - I gave you an early tickup...
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